Valdai Club

A toxic combination of inertia, nostalgia, suspicion, and mutual recriminations continue to define the Russia-US relationship, rather than a clear-eyed appreciation of just how much the world has changed, writes Jacob L. Shapiro, founder and chief strategist of Perch Perspectives.

The COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate the shift towards multipolarity. Besides the United States and China, a stronger, more centralized European Union will emerge and behave like a more classically geopolitical entity; Russia will become a buffer zone between China and Europe; India will play an increasingly large role in the global economy; Turkey will seek to become a dominant force in the Mediterranean. Within these various networks, there will be more integration; between these various networks, there will be less economic interaction, writes Jacob L. Shapiro, independent writer, researcher, and consultant on geopolitical risk, global strategies, and international affairs.

This is not to say that Russian and U.S. interests will line up perfectly or that this will lead to a U.S.-Russia detente. Overall, however, Russia and the U.S. will have more shared strategic interests than differences in the Middle East for the next 10 years.