Valdai Club

2022-2023

Modern Diplomacy

Andrey Sushentsov

Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University

The crumbling of international order and security institutions in the second half of the 20^th century poses an applied question for the foreign policy community: what is the role of diplomacy in the new conditions? The situation of prolonged confrontation, the deep crisis of trust between elites, post-truth, and digital communications are qualitatively changing the environment of diplomatic communication and the profession itself. The need for large-scale embassies is decreasing and the ability to maintain them is waning, their functions being curtailed to consular issues and support for the frequent visits of top officials.

How will the international relations crisis influence the diplomatic profession and the diplomats themselves: will they become ordinary bureaucrats or will it incentivise them to develop new skills and capabilities?

What set of applied skills and worldview should 21^st century politicians and diplomats have, and how does it differ from the classic menu of recent decades?

This programme continues the International Conflict and Political Leadership Programme.

Opinions

The Ukrainian Conflict: Echoes of the Cuban Missile Crisis and Russia’s Strategic Interests

Ukraine has moved the centre of its sovereignty beyond the country’s borders, which was a mistake by the elites that costs Ukrainian society very dearly, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.

Andrey Sushentsov

Some Impressions on How the ‘Global South’ Views a Settlement in the Middle East

An apparent disregard for human suffering and the immense trauma inflicted on children and other vulnerable groups is a pain that is very familiar in the Global South, writes Mikatekiso Kubayi.

Mikatekiso Kubayi

Between Washington and Beijing: South Korea’s Diplomacy at a Crossroads

Contrary to South Korea’s expectations, the Korea-China summit expected to take place at the APEC summit in San Francisco on November 15-17, 2023 did not happen. President Xi Jinping held summits with the leaders of the US and Japan as well as several other countries, but he only shook hands and had a brief conversation with President Yoon Suk Yeol. Why did China turn a blind eye to the summit with South Korea?

China-US Summit: Has the Degradation of Relations Been Halted?

The core problem between China and the United States is that the two countries have very different ideas about how to view each other’s existence and how to get along with each other, in other words, there are substantive differences in their mutual identification, modes of coexistence, and principles of national relations, Zhao Huasheng writes.

What Divisions Have Been Exposed in Europe over the Crisis in Palestine

The critical voices of certain leaders in Western Europe, the efforts of humanitarian organizations, and numerous protests in Western cities lack substantial resonance and will not lead to the swift resolution of the current Gaza crisis. The final solution to the war between Israel and Hamas will be brought by Israel, with the support of the United States of America, writes Aleksandar Raković.

Aleksandar Raković

Principles of Polycentricity and Security in a Changing World

The UN is a reflection of modern international relations and the main crises. The situation will not normalise until the new balance of power in the world becomes clear to everyone. The lack of a solid understanding of what such a balance should look like disorients both the apparatus of this organisation and many countries that are members of the UN General Assembly, Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov writes.

Andrey Sushentsov

Reform of the French Diplomatic Service: Will It Help?

The gradual loss of traditions is fraught with the decline of French diplomacy. It is no coincidence that the reform initiated by Macron has coincided with a series of serious failures in his foreign policy, in particular in relations with African countries, former colonies of France, which is especially painful for Paris, Ambassador Alexander Kuznetsov writes.

Alexander Kuznetsov

The Crumbling of the World Order and a Vision of Multipolarity: The Position of Russia and the West

The United States perceives peace, security, and stability as a given that happens on its own. According to Washington, no significant efforts are required to maintain it, and when there is a need, the United States itself initiates a military conflict. This is a big difference between the US and Russia: Russia understands that in order to save the world from catastrophe, the major powers must reach a consensus and maintain order in their regions, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

Andrey Sushentsov

Algeria at the BRICS’ Doorstep: A Journey of Aspirations and Opportunities

At the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa, Algeria’s candidacy was not retained to join the 5-member grouping; six out of 23 candidates were chosen: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. While politically, Algeria is the ideal candidate, its economic standing might not have been attractive enough, at least not yet. The pause before eventual membership in the BRICS at a later date should entice Algeria to accelerate long-overdue domestic reforms, reflect, innovate, and bolster efforts to position itself as an indisputable player on the global stage.

Yahia H. Zoubir, Xuanrong Wu

Israel-Hamas Conflict: Shifting Discourses in Turkish Foreign Policy and Its Geopolitical Implications

As rockets shatter the fragile peace in the Middle East and nations pick sides, Dr. Hasan Selim Özertem dissects the precarious dance of Turkish foreign policy amidst a new deadly flare-up in the Israel-Hamas conflict. An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara’s diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey’s geopolitical path.

Hasan Selim Özertem

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Reports

The Shoot Down/Miss the Target Dilemma: The Evolution of Missile Defense and Its Implications for Arms Control

The worsening international military and political situation compels experts, time and time again, to focus on missile defenses. Heightened missile threats stimulate the development of defensive capabilities. Traditionally, missile defense is seen as a destabilization factor as well. The purpose of this paper is to identify fundamental trends and key problem areas and present proposals for potential solutions to minimize the negative implications of missile defense development for international security.

Alexander Chekov, Oleg Krivolapov, Konstantin Bogdanov, Dmitry Stefanovich, Vasily Klimov

The Return of History: Cold War Lessons for Current International Crises

Today, as in past epochs, the search for an international political balance is accompanied by intense confrontation between major powers and military blocs. Not surprisingly, mutual hostility is emerging as the dominant mode in relations between Russia and the West.

Igor Istomin, Nikita Neklyudov, Andrey Sushentsov

Coming-of-Age Stories: Foreign Policy as Formative Experience for New Eurasian States

During the fiist 30 years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics were like teenagers who graduated school at a time of historical transformation.

Andrey Sushentsov, Nikolai Silaev