On June 3, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Fate of the Iranian Nuclear Deal”.
With both the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 – which endorsed the agreement – set to expire in October 2025, the international community faces a pivotal moment. One possible outcome is the automatic reinstatement of all UN sanctions against Iran, a scenario that could prompt Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Such a move would have severe and unpredictable repercussions for regional and global security.
Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump proposed a new nuclear agreement to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warning of military action should Tehran refuse to negotiate. Iran dismissed the possibility of direct talks under threat but indicated openness to mediated discussions involving third countries.
Since then, the US and Iran have engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations, the latest of which took place in Rome on May 23. While no breakthrough was achieved, both sides acknowledged the talks would continue. Trump described the discussions as making serious progress, while Iranian officials cautioned Washington against undermining their country’s right to peaceful nuclear energy.
What are the realistic prospects for a renewed JCPOA? Where do the red lines lie for each side? How will other major players, particularly Russia and the EU, influence the negotiations? And how does Iran’s domestic political landscape shape its stance? The discussion participants will try to answer these and other questions.
Speakers:
Alexander Maryasov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Iran (2001–2005)
Alireza Noori, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University (Iran)
Moderator:
Working languages: Russian, English.