On November 9, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “Red vs. Blue: How Will the New Composition of Congress Affect US Policy?”
On November 8, 2022, the US midterm elections were held. The current election campaign will largely determine the fate of the 2024 presidential election. The campaign to nominate candidates for the presidency of the United States may be launched soon after the midterm elections.
According to polls, the Republicans have a good chance of regaining a majority in the House of Representatives following the midterm elections. It is quite possible that they will take the majority in the Senate, but the outcome of the elections remains anyone’s guess. In the Senate elections, only a third of the seats will be up for grabs, and voters in swing states - Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin - will decide the outcome of the race. The Democratic Party’s chances have been hurt by the image of Joe Biden, who, according to a number of experts, has not become a strong leader in the eyes of most Americans, capable of solving the economic and domestic political problems of the United States. If a majority in the House of Representatives goes to the Republicans, then Biden will be in a politically dangerous situation, as the decline in his popularity and the growth of the influence of Republicans in Congress may contribute to talk of his impeachment.
Although US foreign policy is unlikely to change as a result of the elections, some of the emphasis in the US approach to the Ukrainian issue may be shifted. Thus, one of the likely consequences of the victory of the Republicans, according to the American media, could be a reduction in the weapons and financial assistance supplied to Ukraine by the United States.
What should we expect from a possible new or ongoing balance of power in the US Congress? Will a potential shift in power affect US policy towards Ukraine? Will it bring changes to Russian-American relations? Participants of the discussion tried to answer these and other questions.
- Dimitri Simes, President, Center for the National Interest, Washington
- Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director and Research Fellow, CCEMI, National Research University Higher School of Economics