Syria: Origins of the Crisis and Future Prospects
Valdai Club Conference Hall, Tsvetnoy Boulevard 16/1, Moscow, Russia
List of speakers

On December 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion devoted to the situation in Syria. Fyodor Lukyanov, the discussion moderator, called the events in the country extremely dramatic and emphasised that the very speed at which the regime in the country dematerialised was indicative of a new type of change of power, even for the turbulent modern history of the Middle East.

Academician Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the element of surprise was quite high, although Turkey and Qatar were clearly ready for it. Speaking about the consequences and identifying questions that have not yet been answered, he noted that the Kurds suffered the most, in addition to Bashar al-Assad’s supporters. “The Kurdish factor is dramatically changing its place in the balance of power,” the expert believes. “The question is whether the Americans continue to support the Kurds.” Naumkin then pointed to the Iraqi factor. What will happen to the tank troops that have left for Iraq, which are presumably loyal to the previous regime? Will Israel decide to strike them? In this case, Iraq will also be drawn into regional chaos, which could escalate into a war of all against all. The main beneficiaries of what is happening are Israel and Turkey, but it is not entirely clear what they want, and in this context, the question of buffer zones, in particular in the Golan Heights, remains quite important. Should their creation be considered an annexation or is it simply a tactical move? In addition, according to Naumkin, we should not forget about the fate of the ideology of Arab nationalism as such. Will the collapse of the last regime grounded in this set of ideas also mean its collapse, or will it return to the political arena?

Jamil Qadri, the leader of the Moscow Platform of the Syrian opposition and secretary of the People’s Will party, called for an understanding of what is happening by turning to the past and analysing the origins of the crisis systematically. He sees an important factor in the fact that Syria has been living under a one-party system for 75 years, with power in the hands of the security forces. Syrian leaders probably had no other choice, given the underdevelopment of the political system, but this does not change the problems generated by this approach. In the 1970s, the regime managed to achieve a certain consensus in society both thanks to the anti-Israeli and anti-imperialist course approved by the people, and thanks to economic growth, accompanied by an increase in the standard of living. However, when the economic downturn began, discontent began to develop in society. As a result, the decrease in the standard of living and problems with social justice overshadowed satisfaction with the political course, which led to the first wave of popular discontent in 2011. The situation continued to worsen, including due to corruption. Bashar al-Assad ignored Russia’s recommendations to hold a political dialogue. As a result, over 80 percent of the population was discontented, which directly affected the army’s unpreparedness to fight.

Taha Ozhan, Director of the Research Institute in Ankara, sees the fall of the Assad regime as the culmination of a long-term crisis: the authorities had failed to manage the country and actively resorted to repression, while actually controlling only a small part of the territory, and many Syrians became refugees or internally displaced persons. “The collapse of the regime was accompanied by eleven years of agony and eleven days of struggle,” he summarised. This led to the formation of a political vacuum that requires a pragmatic settlement. A recalibration of the positions of Russia, Iran, the United States and Turkey in the region is necessary.

Currently, the future of Syria looks uncertain. Chaotic scenarios associated with continued violence cannot be ruled out. However, now all Syrian actors, including the opposition that has come to power, are tired of the struggle and have demonstrated an unwillingness to continue the civil war. Outlining Turkey’s approach, Ozhan highlighted two areas: confronting the PKK and efforts to stabilise and minimise security threats.