Valdai Club

On March 9, the Valdai Club and the Centre for Russia-China Strategic Interaction under the CITIC Foundation for Reform and Development Studies of China held an online conference, titled “How Will Economic Relations Between the United States, Russia and China Develop under the New American Administration?”

Among the possible changes associated with the coming to power in America of the administration of Joseph Biden, Yaroslav Lissovolik, programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club, named the opening of markets, the growing importance of the environmental agenda and a change in US foreign policy priorities. For Russia, the most important issue will probably be the environment, and for China - technological development and trade relations.

Peking University Professor Cao Heping, having analysed the dynamics of the Russia-USA-China triangle and the economic indicators of the three countries (particularly the level of development of the digital economy in each), noted that while Trump spoke primarily against China, and Biden considers Russia the main adversary, both parties advocate the American course of containing both Russia and China in order to ensure that American dominance in the world remains unchanged. “If China and Russia can cooperate in the field of high technology, then the relative decline of the United States will be inevitable and prolonged. Otherwise, the United States will be able to return to the dominance that we observed in the 90s, ” he stressed, also pointing out the importance of creating a harmonious multipolar system with the participation of Europe, Africa and Latin America.

Alexey Maslov, Acting Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, briefly outlined American policy towards China. "Under Biden, the pressure on China will increase, the only thing that will change is the rhetoric," he suggested. According to Maslov, the agenda will be about pressure in the field of high technology, criticism of China's defence development and Sino-Russian defence cooperation, and countering Chinese economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road and cyber currency initiatives. The United States will also not ignore the situation in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Against this background, Russia and China need to strengthen relations with each other, define a joint vision of the future, and together create a system of integrated security at the regional and global level.

Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the HSE Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI), spoke about American politics, primarily toward Russia. It will remain confrontational both in relation to China and in relation to Russia, however, with the abandonment of the arms race, the maximum involvement of allies and partners will be limited to the containment of Russia and China and selective cooperation with Moscow and Beijing on a number of topics. Addressing climate policy, which is extremely important for the Biden administration, he stressed that unlike in Europe, there is no consensus in the United States on the environmental agenda and green development. There is still a lack of clarity on the issue of the US imposition of border carbon taxes. Their introduction could start a new US-China trade war. In this regard, Suslov called for the intensification of the Russian-Chinese climate dialogue and the joint development  - possibly within the BRICS framework - of a new, more equitable climate agenda for the world.