Asia and Eurasia
Central Asia In a New Reality
Valdai Club Conference Hall, Tsvetnoy Boulevard 16/1, Moscow, Russia
List of speakers

On December 22, the Valdai Club presented a new report, titled “Central Asia and the Ukrainian Crisis”. The moderator of the discussion, Fyodor Lukyanov, Research director of the Valdai Discussion Club, called Central Asian issues among the most important; adding that both the Valdai Club and Russian politics have focused on the region for a long time. He added that this sphere of foreign relations, like others, was influenced by the events of 2022, including the Ukrainian crisis.

Timofei Bordachev, head of the report's team of authors and Programme Director of the Club, pointed to the special importance for Russia of the Central Asian region as part of the geographical region in which Russia's interests are best secured. This significance is especially great against the backdrop of fundamental foreign policy changes in 2022. “The processes launched in 2022 will continue for a very long time,” he stressed. “Accordingly, we need to somehow settle ourselves in this new reality and carefully look at how this new reality affects Russia’s relations with its closest and most important neighbours and how they themselves fit into this new reality.”

Daria Chizhova, the main author of the report, director of the Information and Analytical Center for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space and editor-in-chief of the Ia-centr.ru portal, analysed the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on Central Asia in a number of specific respects, including the economy. She pointed to an increase in the number of visits by US and European representatives to the region due to its special role in the security architecture of Russia and China which have resulted from geographical factors. Chizhova noted that while the Central Asian countries are trying not to fall under secondary sanctions, the deep connection with Russia, no doubt, leads to the fact that the economic geopolitical breakdown has a noticeable impact on the regional economy.

Summarising the economic consequences of what is happening, Alexander Sternik, director of the Third Department of the CIS countries of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that “the apocalyptic scenarios did not come true”, adding “The economies of both Russia and Central Asia are doing better than originally predicted.” He stressed that this is not a spontaneous effect, but the result of systematic work. The diplomat commended the desire of the Central Asian partners to build relations both with Russia and with other major players in the region, which opens up wide room for manoeuvre for Russia. “Such moderation in playing by one-sided rules is worth a lot,” he said.

Evgeny Kozhokin, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations, Political Science and Foreign Regional Studies department of the Russian State University for the Humanities and Professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, called the report extremely timely. Noting the incorrectness of the thesis that Russia has no policy in Central Asia and lacks success in the region, he pointed out that such a policy exists not only at the level of the state, but also at the level of society, and between Russia and Central Asia there is a kind of connection. Kozhokin stressed that the West is now actively working to undermine this policy and to destabilise the region.