Valdai Club

On April 20, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “A New Framework for International Relations: The End of US Hegemony?” Discussion moderator Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, invited the participants to discuss the contours of the emerging new order in the world and in Eurasia. He noted that the Ukrainian crisis has accelerated the world’s movement towards polycentricity, and this impulse is forcing many major powers, particularly China and India, to rethink their interdependence with the countries of the West and their relations with each other.

Ivan Zuenko, Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry, presented the main points of view on the Ukrainian crisis that exist in the Chinese expert community. According to the first of them, the current instability, which is leading to a change in the world order, is beneficial for China, as it leads to the creation of a truly multipolar world. Those who share this viewpoint believe that China needs to remain neutral for as long as possible, counting on the impending collapse of the pro-Western order. Those taking the second approach believe that the current situation has led to the consolidation of the West and the strengthening of the position of the United States, and China should support Washington in this situation in order to resolve the differences of recent years and return to the global “family of nations”. However, most experts concur with the mainstream approach supported by the Chinese establishment. It suggests a compromise stance - supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity while condemning NATO expansion, viewing the Ukrainian crisis in the broader context of world politics, and trying to maintain good relations with all parties.

Sanjaya Baru, Distinguished Fellow at the United Service Institution of India, introduced the Indian vision. He stressed that the crisis has divided public opinion not only in China but also in India. However, the position of the government and leading political parties is that Russia is an important strategic partner, relations with which must be maintained at any  cost. In addition, Indian analysts tend to believe that the world is moving towards multipolarity, in which India will become one of the important centres of power. They see centrifugal rather than centripetal tendencies in the global system and reject the concept of a new bipolar order emerging with the US and China as poles. Baru emphasised that multipolarity is an issue that should be considered not so much in the context of economics or military power, but within the framework of a civilisational approach. In his opinion, the centre of world civilisations, one of which, undoubtedly, is India, should become the centres of power in the new world.

Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of the Group of South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies, IMEMO RAS, spoke about the prospects for Russian-Indian cooperation. Comparing the current situation with an avalanche, he noted that in the context of growing chaos that destroys previous plans and ties, it is better for Russia and India to expand cooperation, which can become one of the bridges that can help both countries survive. At the same time, cooperation should develop not only in the usual areas, such as military cooperation, space cooperation, cooperation in the field of atomic energy. We need to expand trade. At a time when the number of Russian trading partners has drastically decreased, India represents an uncontested corridor for Russia to access Western technologies and the Western financial market. In addition, India is important for Russia in itself - both as a market for goods, and as an "assembly shop" for the implementation of technologies, and as an important political player with which there are no serious contradictions.