On June 3, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Fate of the Iranian Nuclear Deal”.
With both the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 – which endorsed the agreement – set to expire in October 2025, the international community faces a pivotal moment. One possible outcome is the automatic reinstatement of all UN sanctions against Iran, a scenario that could prompt Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Such a move would have severe and unpredictable repercussions for regional and global security.
What are the realistic prospects for a renewed JCPOA? Where do the red lines lie for each side? How will other major players, particularly Russia and the EU, influence the negotiations? And how does Iran’s domestic political landscape shape its stance? The discussion participants tried to answer these and other questions.