Valdai Club

2022 will be a new moment of truth for Eastern Europe and could determine the future of the region for years to come, writes Valdai Club expert Yauheni Preiherman. The current tensions in European security neutralise all nuances and shades, presenting the region with a simple black-and-white alternative: a hopeless escalation with the prospect of a complete implosion of Eastern Europe or an agreement to preserve the regional infrastructure of cooperation.

Recent visits by US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have caused clear concern in Moscow. If Washington’s contacts at this level with Kiev have long been daily drudgery, then, for example, in Belarusian-American relations, this is the highest-level visit in 26 years.

These contradictions are associated with different perceptions of Moscow and Minsk regarding two phenomena: the essence of economic integration and the importance of sovereignty.

Bolton's communication with the leader of Belarus is unlikely to fundamentally change the US vision of Eastern European security. But in Minsk, Bolton clearly heard theses that were not very familiar to the American establishment, which in recent years got its information about the region from the team of Petro Poroshenko.

On September 21, Sochi hosted a meeting of the presidents of Russia and Belarus, which was also attended by top government officials from both sides. A number of problems have piled up in Russian-Belarusian relations in the recent period, which explains a media focus on the Sochi meeting. Moreover, this is the second Putin-Lukashenko meeting within one month. Last time, the parties agreed to hold an expanded meeting and find solutions to the existing differences.

The country’s geographic location largely predetermines its foreign policy, as well as the trajectory of its socioeconomic development.