Valdai Club

Tehran has been preparing for a confrontation with the US by establishing networks across the region in a bid to keep the conflict outside its borders. Unlike the US, Iran also has a concrete strategy in the Middle East, which involves, as one of its primary aims, pushing the US out of the region.

Ankara enjoys strong partnership with both Washington and Moscow and uses each of these relations as leverage against the other. The US, however, has a strong arsenal of potential punishment against Turkey, writes Valdai Club expert Güney Yıldız. At the top of the list of penalties come possible economic sanctions against Turkey as well as a potential fine against the state-owned Halkbank for allegedly violating US sanctions against Iran.

Abandoned by the US abruptly, the Kurds will lose their autonomy and will have to work with Russia and the regime to at least retain their land and to get protection from Turkey. Iran, on the other hand, also has leverage on the broader Kurdish movement, primarily through their influence over Iraq.

The delivery of the first batch of Russian-made S-400 missiles this week, despite loud protests from Washington, demonstrates Ankara’s determination not to alienate Moscow. Due to the multi-layered nature of the relationship between Turkey and Russia, it may be possible for the countries to mitigate, to a certain degree, the strains caused by the Idlib debacle.

In the case of US falling short of exercising military power against Iran, following a drama of threats and retractions from White House, there is also a risk for Washington, to further weaken its allies in the region against Iran and embolden Tehran’s exaggerated sense of its capabilities.

Russian and Iranian willingness to go along with Turkey's plans in Syria largely stems from the U.S. presence there. It is doubtful that Moscow and Tehran would tolerate Turkey getting control of oil-rich north-eastern Syria as well as strategic dams and fertile agricultural fields. What Ankara would have preferred was a continuing US presence in Syria and an agreement with Washington that would have green-lighted a limited Turkish cross-border military operation into Northern Syrian towns.

Last Sunday, Turkey held presidential and parliamentary elections, which ended in a new victory for the incumbent leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In an interview with valdaiclub.com, Guney Yildiz, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, shared his view on the domestic and international ramifications of the elections’ results.

Turkey’s relations with Israel are determined, in no small part, by Ankara’s relations with other power blocs, its domestic and foreign policy. Therefore the roots of Ankara’s May 14th decision to recall its ambassadors to Washington and Tel Aviv shouldn’t solely be sought in US President Donald Trump’s decision to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem.

When the Turkish troops entered the centre of the Syrian Kurdish town Afrin on 18th of March, it not only marked the beginning of a new phase in Syrian conflict, but it also marked the start of a strategic partnership with Moscow and Ankara. Turkish and pro-Turkish forces will need Russian approval for every of their stay in Afrin.  If Russia closes down the airspace to Turkey, casualties on the side of the Turkish and pro-Turkish Syrian factions could rise dramatically.