Valdai Club

At first sight, Russia and Iran seem to have compatible – or even similar – approaches to the JCPOA and regional security. Moscow’s emphasis on the need for all parties to return to the nuclear deal in its original form and avoid raising new demands at this stage is in line with Tehran’s view that the JCPOA is “concluded and sealed” and cannot be renegotiated. However, the more Russian officials elaborate on their views on regional security, the less attractive they appear to become to the Iranian side, Valdai Club experts Hanna Notte and Hamidreza Azizi write.

Unlike what the American officials have been claiming over the past several days, the “post-Soleimani Middle East” is going to be a much more dangerous place, not only for the US, but also for the countries and people of the region.

The only things the conservatives need to do is to wait till the next elections to completely sideline the moderate and reformist camp in the Iranian political sphere. Indeed, this would be sharply in contrast with what the US has expected and tried to achieve.

Despite their differences on a number of issues, the three Astana partners still view this format as a functional framework, which can help them preserve their basic interests in Syria while avoiding unnecessary clashes or conflicts.

Although the current pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic can be named as the toughest and most comprehensive one ever, and it has already shown its negative impacts on the Iranian economy, it would rather fall short of sparking a regime change in Iran.

Iran is expected to continue using the measures of multilateral diplomacy and nuclear pressure – in terms of threatening to further revising its JCPOA commitments – to push the Europeans toward fully abiding by their commitments.

As tensions between the US and Turkey over Ankara’s purchase of the S-400 missile defense systems have been only on the rise, obscuring the prospects of a US-Turkish understanding on Syria, Turkey might become more willing to reach a mutually acceptable solution with its two Astana partners on the issues of diverging interests.

Although both Iran and the US say they don’t want to enter a war with each other, the whole situation in the Middle East is becoming more and more fragile and any miscalculation or provocation could result in a devastating military confrontation.

The sequence of developments has sparked speculations that a military confrontation between Iran and the US could be on the horizon.

One year after the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal (JAPOA) with Iran and as a result of Washington’s campaign of maximizing pressures on the Islamic Republic, which has blocked Iran’s access to the real benefits of the deal, Tehran decided to decrease its commitments under the JCPOA.