Valdai Club

If Netanyahu is returned as Prime Minister then one of America’s closest allies will be heavily indebted to Moscow. It is conceivable that could be of help directly on the U.S.-Russia track, but it will almost certainly be of potential value as the next phase of Syria and a possible endgame in Syria comes into sight, with America largely withdrawing and with Israel in a position to spoil or facilitate the kind of settlement that could be in Russia’s interest.

The mood in Israel suggests that this is a moment of truth for Netanyahu – whether in the very short term in the election against Gantz or in the more immediate term with a likely indictment and trial facing him, and there is also the simple factor of fatigue with Netanyahu after so long in office.

Iran is a threat that the United States can use to squeeze as much money for “security” out of the Gulf States as it can. Part of the overall large picture in the Middle East could be explained as demonstrating America’s global domination to the Chinese and others vis-à-vis Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s governing coalition is currently considering legislation that would effectively annex settlements in the occupied West Bank. There was already an established trend within the Israeli political and policy debate, reflected in public opinion, which was ever more hostile to the basic tenants of a potential agreed two-state solution and to acknowledging any Palestinian rights. The Trump administration has intensified that trend.

Under the last US administration and President Obama, an important question was raised as to how far America could bend its allies to its will in the Middle East. Under the Trump administration, there has been a very pronounced effort to bring America much closer again with traditional allies and notably to embolden the leaderships in Israel and Saudi Arabia with whom the Obama administration was in occasional disagreement, that also extends to Egypt and others in the Gulf such as the UAE.