Valdai Club

Does Russia need a new Middle East strategy? This is the first question that springs to mind. After all, Russia has been quite successful, in some cases even outperforming the Soviet Union. In fact, Russia has succeeded in developing a close relationship with Israel while maintaining its trustbased ties with Palestine, as well as building an alliance with Syria all while strengthening relations with Iran, which used to call the USSR a “Little Satan”.

The Middle East is going through a paradigm shift in its political development’ was perhaps the most constant refrain in Valdai Forum discussions. Pan-Arabism as a dominant idea sank in the Arab Spring, giving way to a swirling flow of Islamism, which seemed like it would be there for quite some time.

The Kurdish-Syrian reconciliation is far from simple, mutual alienation and distrust have not been overcome, and ideas about how relations will be built in the future still differ significantly. But the process has already begun, part of the SDF is fighting in close coordination with the Syrian army.

The development of relations within the Russia-Iran-Turkey triangle will strengthen the positive dynamics in the region, which ultimately can  have a positive effect in the Syrian direction.

Judging by spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin’s statement (spokesman for the president of Turkey), a regular Russia-Iran-Turkey summit in the Astana format will take place in Ankara in August.It is becoming increasingly obvious that conditions for holding the forum are not just ripe but also make it an urgent necessity.

At this point, one of the main issues is the ability of Russia and Iran to use the capital of trust developed during the conflict and transform it into cooperation on Syria’s recovery. If the answer is “yes” it will be possible to talk about the strategic character of Russian-Iranian relations in Syria. If different approaches to military construction and an understanding of one’s role in the Syrian economy prevail, Russian-Iranian cooperation will be described as merely tactical and already something from the past.

No one expected any breakthrough solutions from the Putin-Erdogan-Merkel-Macron quadripartite summit in Istanbul. Anyway, the summit results significantly exceeded skeptics’ expectations.

In recent months, France, in the person of Emmanuel Macron, has been striving for greater participation in the Syrian settlement and for development of a clearer position on this issue. In particular, this was reflected in France’s participation in missile strikes on April 14 and the entry of French troops into the country. In his interview for valdaiclub.com, Konstantin Truevtsev, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, discusses the prospects for the country’s participation in the process.

War is always a tragedy and human suffering. However, quite often a different logic is observed behind the words about caring for peaceful citizens: attempts to stop Syria’s purification from the contamination of terrorism.

The current development of the situation in Syria is marked by two events. The first is the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi, the second is the Turkish "Olive Branch" military operation against the Syrian Kurds in the Afrin canton.