Valdai Club

On June 13-14, 2019, the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) met in Bishkek. The leaders of the SCO member and observer states arrived in Kyrgyzstan, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan; this was their first meeting since the escalation of the armed conflict in Kashmir in February.

The US military presence in Syria is under big question and its influence will diminish. Goals that were set are not achieved. Even creating a Kurdish quasi-state will not work – because there is a serious Arab opposition against the Kurds, in the eastern part of the Deir-ez-Zor province.

Until recently, Russia has been actively preparing for a large-scale military operation in the province of Idlib, as well as in Latakia, Hama and Aleppo, conducting an appropriate foreign policy together with military preparations.

Ankara has serious reasons to aggravate the situation in Idlib province. The main reason is that Russia invited to the Congress of the peoples of Syria in Sochi the representatives of the Kurdish Democratic Union party, which is considered in Turkey as a terrorist organization.

Because of the downed Syrian Su-22 Russia stopped cooperation with the United States on the Syria memorandum. It is clear that the Americans will have to fly in the Russian air defense zone, and such flights are fraught with incidents. There are two directions: one involves fighting in Raqqa, the second is the activities in southern Syria near the Jordanian border, where a buffer zone is created. The uncertainty regarding these two directions pushed the Americans to shoot down the Syrian aircraft.

For Saudi Arabia the split among the Persian Gulf states is undesirable.By taking tough measures, Saudi Arabia is likely to be interested in finding a compromise - for example, that Qatar will take more into account the interests of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis want Qatar to recognize the primacy of Saudi Arabia's role in the Sunni world.

Support for Syrian Kurds and simultaneous desire to maintain relations with Turkey puts the United States in an extremely difficult position, Valdai Club experts believe. This duality will lead to the situation that instead of fighting against ISIS in Syria, Kurds and pro-Turkish forces will continue to fight against each other.

Recent reports on the Russian presence in the North-East of Aleppo province, also known as the Kurdish canton of Afrin, may mean that preparations are being made for a future offensive in the Idlib province.

The final goal of US aggression against Syria is pressure on China during the visit of President Xi Jinping, according to Valdai Club expert Vladimir Yevseyev. According to Yevseyev, despite its extremely low effectiveness, the goal of the strike against the Syrian air base was to demonstrate strength.

The liberation of Aleppo is inevitable and we can only argue about the timeframes, Valdai Club expert Vladimir Yevseyev says. Turkey, for its part, has few prospects of success in Syria, as it will be under pressure from both the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian army.