Valdai Club

This is undoubtedly the first time in many years that the world economy has been threatened by three crises, each quite distinct in its origins, but whose consequences are intertwined, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

The feedback effects of sanctions on European economies have yet to be fully revealed. The sum of these effects, the so-called “boomerang effects”, will indeed only be known within a year. It could turn out to be far greater than the effects on Russia. In the long term, Russia may well do well while the EU, mired in thoughtless support for Ukraine, may have to pay a prohibitive price, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

The sanctions taken against Russia by EU countries are generating a major “boomerang effect,” one which could lead to a global energy crisis. The shock will probably be felt by the EU economy this winter and afterwards. It is therefore at this time that crucial political questions will arise regarding the expediency of the EU countries’ policy towards Russia, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

The opposition between two groups of countries is threatening us with the risk of a global war. But war has probably already begun in the economic field. Through sanctions and counter-sanctions we are seeing the global trade framework collapsing. Other issues are to be taken in account for next years, and most of all global warming. Could self-sufficiency be a solution? And, much more important, could self-sufficiency be still practicable? Jacques Sapir, Director of Studies at École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), tries to answer these questions in his presentation at the SPIEF-2022.

If we remain in a world marked by strong economic interdependencies, a producer of raw materials and semi-finished products as important as Russia cannot be excluded. Otherwise, we are moving towards a world where interdependencies are seen as vulnerabilities and over-dependence, and the break-up of the global economy into economic regions folded in on themselves is inevitable, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.


The “Elitist-bourgeois” and Europeanist bloc that has gathered around Emmanuel Macron is both solid AND a minority in the country. The “social-populist” bloc, in other words the combination of a vote of conviction regarding a structured social programme and a vote of exasperation structured around a populist-social discourse of real effectiveness, is in fact in the majority in France, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

As the world emerges painfully from the Covid-19 pandemic, new worries appear to dominate global markets. Still, the rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and generated increased labour shortages. The global pandemic is not behind us, even if the worst fears about the latest variant have not been vindicated.

Between the ineffectiveness of the EU in controlling German power and surrendering to American interests, there was a third possibility: that of an economic as well as political rapprochement with Russia. But this would require from a future president an unusual will, and consistency in execution, both of which seem to be lacking in French political life, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

While AIs will be able to enhance the flexibility of economies under certain conditions in the event of new pandemics, they certainly won’t serve as a ‘miracle solution’, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

What will be the economic architecture of the world after the Covid-19 crisis? This question involves understanding the major trends at work for twenty years now.