Valdai Club

The opposition between two groups of countries is threatening us with the risk of a global war. But war has probably already begun in the economic field. Through sanctions and counter-sanctions we are seeing the global trade framework collapsing. Other issues are to be taken in account for next years, and most of all global warming. Could self-sufficiency be a solution? And, much more important, could self-sufficiency be still practicable? Jacques Sapir, Director of Studies at École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), tries to answer these questions in his presentation at the SPIEF-2022.

If we remain in a world marked by strong economic interdependencies, a producer of raw materials and semi-finished products as important as Russia cannot be excluded. Otherwise, we are moving towards a world where interdependencies are seen as vulnerabilities and over-dependence, and the break-up of the global economy into economic regions folded in on themselves is inevitable, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.


The “Elitist-bourgeois” and Europeanist bloc that has gathered around Emmanuel Macron is both solid AND a minority in the country. The “social-populist” bloc, in other words the combination of a vote of conviction regarding a structured social programme and a vote of exasperation structured around a populist-social discourse of real effectiveness, is in fact in the majority in France, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

As the world emerges painfully from the Covid-19 pandemic, new worries appear to dominate global markets. Still, the rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and generated increased labour shortages. The global pandemic is not behind us, even if the worst fears about the latest variant have not been vindicated.

Between the ineffectiveness of the EU in controlling German power and surrendering to American interests, there was a third possibility: that of an economic as well as political rapprochement with Russia. But this would require from a future president an unusual will, and consistency in execution, both of which seem to be lacking in French political life, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

While AIs will be able to enhance the flexibility of economies under certain conditions in the event of new pandemics, they certainly won’t serve as a ‘miracle solution’, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir.

What will be the economic architecture of the world after the Covid-19 crisis? This question involves understanding the major trends at work for twenty years now.

The human cost will continue to accrue until the lockdowns are lifted, or even until the beginning of next year, hence the difficulty in collecting reliable statistics. But there is no question that it will be high, Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir writes.

The Coronavirus epidemic comes at a particular time for the global economy. The forecasts made in December 2019, that is to say, before this epidemic, were not stellar. Already in 2019, growth had been only 2.9%, among the lowest figures seen since 2008, when markets were hit by the financial crisis.

Movements to a de-globalization or "demondialization" of the economy, announced in a 2010 book, referred to various authors. This phenomenon has been widely observed. It is also accompanied by a "de-westernization" of the world. These various phenomena are not only economic; they all have a political dimension as well as a cultural dimension. However, this text will focus mainly on the economic dimensions of these movements.