Valdai Club

There is reason to believe that the country will leave the European Union before the January 31 deadline. At the same time that the British elections took place, a meeting of the European Council was held in Brussels, and the EU leaders recognised that the results of elections in the United Kingdom would lead to a final divorce of the parties.

In late October, the British Parliament supported the holding of early elections, scheduled for December 12. Observers agree that these elections will determine the fate of Brexit, which has recently been rescheduled again, to January 31 this time. The election agenda, the alignment of forces and options for the development of events are discussed by Lyudmila Babynina, Head of the Centre for Political Integration Studies at the RAS Institute of Europe.

For Britain there could be no successful deal at all, since those who voted for Brexit actually wanted to break off relations with the EU. The Brexiters’ requirements related to trade policy, renunciation of the EU court jurisdiction, European legislation, freedom of movement will not be fully fulfilled anyway, primarily due to the Irish border problem. In reality, there are two options - either exit without a deal, or exit with the one that is now.

There is some hope that the "hard" Brexit will be slightly softened. However, now it is very difficult to talk about the format of relations. First, at the meeting on June 19 David Davies voiced proposals on the "hard" Brexit, which were published in the "White book".

It is basically a protest referendum, which was initiated by the European skeptics from the left and right. They were able to mobilize their electorate. In any case the image of Ukraine in Europe has undergone some changes.