Valdai Club

KADEX-2024 became a clear confirmation of Seoul's aim to conquer new frontiers in the global arms and military equipment market (W&ME).

All countries in Northeast Asia (except Mongolia) are aiming to create the most combat-ready submarine fleets. It is worth noting the clear emphasis on the task of striking ground targets by the South Koreans and, in the future, also the Japanese. Their focus is also on improving stealth and autonomy for long-term operations in more remote sea areas. Taiwan stands apart, as their independent construction of submarines seems more like an image project that is unlikely to bring real benefits. North Korea is proceeding from its own capabilities, maximizing the potential of its existing material base according to the priorities of nuclear deterrence.

The process of creating a kind of “anti-China” on the basis of Taiwan issue, which has been carried out by Washington since the early 2000s and finally entrenched under the current democratic administration of Tsai Ing-wen, is alarming. The United States is actually implementing the “Ukrainian scenario”, promising security guarantees and military support, as well as drawing allies — Japan and some NATO countries — into a potential conflict zone, writes Andrey Gubin.

The West seems to be exerting more influence on Mongolian society in order to initiate domestic political instability and sabotage Russian and Chinese projects. However, strong traditions of state governance, reliance on national interests, and reliable neighbours should help Ulaanbaatar to withstand any crisis, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea occupy an important place in the regional security complex of East Asia. Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make these neighbours real allies.

In November 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noted that the country should strengthen cooperation with AUKUS members, especially in the field of cyber security and artificial intelligence. In April 2022, the White House denied media reports that Japan had been invited to join and transform the agreement into a JAUKUS format. However, there is no smoke without fire — in November 2022, Western analysts again started talking seriously about the prospects for Tokyo to enter the treaty, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

Russian-Chinese relations are today more than ever a popular topic of discussion in the expert community and political circles. As a rule, these discussions come down to the prospects for the formation of a military-political alliance aimed at confronting the US and its satellites, writes Andrey Gubin, PhD, an Associate Professor of Political Science at the Far Eastern Federal University and an Associate Professor of the Northeast Asia Research Centre of Jilin University (PRC).

The visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan was undoubtedly an unpleasant event for Beijing. At the same time, the step was fully consistent with the spirit of modern US foreign policy.

Over the past three years, in light of the announcement by the Americans that China is a “revisionist state” and a “strategic competitor”, Beijing no longer hopes for a full-fledged restoration of dialogue with the Western countries, and therefore no longer stands on ceremony with the “democratic forces” and special Hong Kong autonomy, Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin writes.

The leadership of the PRC will not give up further attempts to spread influence on a global scale, and Chinese ships, aircraft, ground equipment, military personnel and civilian specialists will inevitably appear in the countries of East and South Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Oceania, as well as South and Central America. However, such activity is possible only as a result of bilateral negotiations, with the consent of the respective sovereign states, based on mutual interests and the principle of indivisible security, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.