Valdai Club

Having signed a “grand” treaty with Poland in Nancy, France is continuing to establish special ties with other individual EU member states while at the same time expecting to rely on Brussels in a long-term confrontation with Russia, writes Alexey Chikhachev, Associate Professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University and leading expert at the Centre for Strategic Studies at the Institute of Foreign Economic Relations at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

The recent televised address by the French president prioritized form over content, reflecting Paris’s current interest in artificially inflating its own importance, writes Alexey Chikhachev. The author is a participant in the Valdai – New Generation project.

France's African strategy has not yet overcome neocolonial inertia, it is based on an inadequate assessment of its own capabilities, which works to the advantage of the global majority, writes Alexey Chikhachev, Senior Lecturer at the Department of European Studies in the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, Leading Expert at the Center for Strategic Studies, Institute for Global Military Economics and Strategy, HSE University. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.  

The appointment of a prime minister hasprovided short-term relief for the French political system, but will not lead it out of the impasse in which it has found itself at the behest of President Emmanuel Macron, believes Alexey Chikhachev, senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies, Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University.

The conflict in Ukraine has accelerated the shift in the centre of gravity within the European Union towards “Mitteleuropa” — Germany and its eastern neighbours, where France’s positions, unlike those of Germany, have never been particularly strong. As a result, the tandem now fully retains its significance for only one participant — Paris, which sees in “special” ties with Berlin an important confirmation of its sovereign status, writes Valdai Club expert Alexei Chikhachev.

The preservation of the status quo in France has caused understandable relief in the European establishment, as well as among most of the media: the staunch Europeanist Macron looks to them like a clearly more advantageous figure than Marine Le Pen, who has proposed reformatting the EU into a union of nation states while weakening common institutions, writes Valdai Club expert Alexei Chikhachev.

Militarily, France is increasingly thinking about reducing the degree of its involvement in the Sahel, then the opposite situation is observed with respect to humanitarian initiatives.

The Normandy Four summit, which has just ended in Paris, became one of the main international events of the passing year: after more than a three-year pause, the leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine gathered again in full force to try to make headway in resolving the conflict in Donbass. However, regarding the specific results of the meeting, both officials and experts accurately predicted that there wouldn’t be any major breakthrough.

France’s GAFA tax has not appeared out of the blue, but it is certainly the worst possible scenario that has been considered in Paris. Initially, the French government advocated a common EU tech tax, but the idea was blackballed by the Scandinavian countries and Ireland, which offer the most favorable conditions for digital business.

French diplomats understand that without contacts with Moscow it will be very hard to address some common challenges. Apart from Ukraine, these include the settlement in Syria, the situation in the Persian Gulf, the future of the Iranian nuclear deal and perhaps the situation in Libya.