Valdai Club

The US policy of containing China, determined by a critical mass of circumstances and factors that do not depend on the change in American administrations, will definitely continue. We should not forget that it was under Trump that the deterrence against China became an openly articulated US strategy. It was Trump who initiated the tariff and technological war with China, and launched the process of decoupling or disconnection from the Chinese economy. At the moment, the only intrigue is what form this confrontation and containment of China will take over the next four years.

Some allege that Beijing intends to reduce its foreign policy activity, return to Deng Xiaoping’s guidelines for pursuing a “passive” foreign policy and move towards direction of “closing” China from the world. On the contrary, one should expect an intensification of China’s efforts to strengthen its positions in the world, including by building up “discursive power,” writes Valdai Club expert Yana Leksyutina.

The demolition, restructuring or crumbling of the world order, which was first discussed in earnest in the wake of the confrontation between the West and Russia, has yet to hit the Asia-Pacific. So far the events taking place in Europe affect the region only tangentially, writes Yana Leksyutina, professor at the Department of American Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg University, for the 13th Asian conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.

It can be said without exaggeration that the decisions taken during the 20th Congress will determine the trajectory of China’s development for the next five years, and could affect it for ten years or more, writes Valdai Club expert Yana Leksyutina.

The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are motivated to join forces with Washington on the issue of containing China, not because they share democratic values, but because they are concerned about the strengthening of China’s military and economic power amid unresolved territorial disputes and Beijing’s assertiveness in promoting China’s interests and narrative in the region, writes Valdai Club expert Yana Leksyutina.

Biden’s economic policies will define his vision of China as a real, genuine economic threat to the United States. The focus will be on technological rivalry with China. We can say that under the Biden administration, China may face much more complex problems than those of the US-China relations under Trump, writes Yana Leksyutina, Professor at the St. Petersburg State University.

Geopolitical changes, such as a crisis in Russia’s relations with the United States and the EU plus their sanctions on Russia’s economy, as well as the US-Chinese trade war, have given a fresh impetus to Russian-Chinese trade and economic ties.

Although the trade war with the US is hurting China, it is not a threat the Chinese can’t deal with. The logic and course of its talks with the US and Beijing’s actions show that China is not afraid of a trade war with the US. China has much more serious apprehensions about the potential US use of non-economic approaches to weakening China and its current authorities.

From 13 to 15 June 2019, two major events will take place in Central Asia: the 19th summit between Heads of States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan and the 5th Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Beijing’s activity in world affairs has been steadily increasing since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009. There is no doubt that China, which has substantially increased its economic and financial strength, has set off on a path of sustainable growth to play a key role in global economic governance; it is improving its leadership potential on the world stage and gradually building a China-centric system of international rules, norms and institutions.