If Russia leaves the Gabala radar station, the Voronezh-type radar at Armavir will not be able to take over all of its functions. On the other hand, Russia’s refusal to extend the lease would seriously impact its position in the South Caucasus. Given that relations with Georgia have been put on ice and ties with Azerbaijan are cooling, it would be more difficult for Russia to protect its political and economic interests in that region.
Russia will decide on June 24 whether to extend its lease agreement for the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. How would a decision against it affect Russia's geostrategic position in the region? Retired Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Affairs, gives an interview to
Valdaiclub.com
.
What is the real reason behind Azerbaijan’s decision to increase the cost for leasing the Gabala radar station?
This decision is connected with the visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the South Caucasus republics – Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. In my view, the Azerbaijani leadership tried to make a present to its U.S. partner by challenging Russia with pricing claims. Increasing the lease payment 40 times over is above all a political issue targeted against Russia. Azerbaijan had no other serious reasons for doing so. Its oil revenues are reasonably high, so the lease of the Gabala radar station is not a means of survival or recovery from the crisis.
Do you think that if Russia gives up the Daryal-type radar station, its functions could be taken over by the Voronezh-type station at Armavir?
If Russia leaves the Gabala radar station, the Voronezh-type radar at Armavir will not be able to take over all of its functions. We would receive less information, but it would not be critically important. That direction is not dangerous in terms of possible missile attacks, and we don’t expect any air raids in that region either.
On the other hand, Russia’s refusal to extend the lease would seriously impact its position in the South Caucasus. Given that relations with Georgia have been put on ice and ties with Azerbaijan are cooling, it would be more difficult for Russia to protect its political and economic interests in that region.
What’s more, Russian-Turkish relations cannot be described as brilliant either. The two countries have diametrically opposed views on how to resolve the Syrian issue.
The situation around Iran has also been deteriorating. The Gabala radar station allowed us to monitor the airspace in that region fairly deeply, up to 6,000 kilometers. This strategic direction is being destroyed today.
Do other countries have an interest in the Gabala station?
First, all equipment at Gabala is Russian property, and second, it is not modern enough to be used effectively. But the station and its location are very convenient for radar scanning. The United States and, to a degree, Turkey could use the facilities at the Daryal-type station in Azerbaijan. No other countries have shown any interest in it.
If the United States decides to use the object, could this be seen as a possible step toward a war with Iran?
The use of the Gabala station will not be a critical factor if the United States decides to launch military action against Iran. The Americans have a powerful system of satellite sensors and radar stations in that region (in Kuwait and Bahrain), as well as Hawkeye and other AWACS aircraft. The use of the Gabala station by the United States would block the actions of our specialists and equipment, therefore potentially allowing it to camouflage preparations for a strike [on Iran].
