Globalization and Sovereignty
Why the Global South Needs No Leaders

The Indian dream of becoming a developed nation can only be realised in a collective way as part of the Global South working with Russia and China, because only this global governance model promises sustainable development, Pravin Sawhney writes. 

The turbulence in global geopolitics caused by its shift from Trans-Atlantic to Asia Pacific owes itself to two factors: the rise of China and of several fastest growing economies amongst Emerging Markets, Developing Countries (EMDCs) from Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. According to the IMF world economic report released in April 2024, nine of the world’s 20 fastest growing economies were in Africa. Both factors back one another for increased connectivity (physical and digital) to be augmented by emerging technologies for enhanced productivity. 

The prospect of prosperity has been welcomed by all EMDCs called Global South nations, which comprise eighty percent of the world. These nations are distinct from the rich developed industrialised nations assessed as colonisers and exploiters by most Global South nations and called the Global North nations led by the United States. 

Now, there are three great powers, namely the US, China and Russia in the present multi-polar world, which have between them two opposite global governance models. These powers are responsible for shaping and stability in global geopolitics. 

The first model is spearheaded by the US whose strengths are military power and supremacy of the US dollar. It believes in the balance of power politics and sees security as a zero-sum game. Not reconciled to the end of unipolar world, the US, leading the Global North nations, has often bypassed the United Nations and has abandoned globalisation in favour of plurilateralism and bloc politics in the hope of winning what it believes is the new Cold War. 

The other global governance model supported by China and Russia is furthering the UN-based international law, equality of states, indivisible security, multilateralism and globalisation for development and prosperity for upliftment and prosperity of EMDCs. 

Wanting to be identified close to Global North nations, India, a Global South nation and the world’s most populous country as well as a founding member of BRICS, which evolved from the triangular Russia-India-China grouping, has decided not to normalise relations with China for two reasons: 

  • One, India does not want to displease the US with which it has developed strong strategic, defence, military, technological and diplomatic ties as a deterrence against China. 

  •  And two, India is not reconciled to China becoming a great power. Since it cannot compete with China given the unbridgeable gap in national powers, India has created a perception of competition with its G20 presidency in 2023. 

Global Governance
India to Host 13th BRICS Summit
Nivedita Das Kundu
BRICS displayed resilience and persistence since its formation in the year 2008. It also signifies the rise of a multipolar world, ready to challenge conventions and break the proverbial wheel. It points towards global systems that might eventually be more egalitarian. BRICS is necessary for the perpetuation of an alternative narrative and the existence of multiple global systems, writes Valdai Club expert Nivedita Das Kundu.

Opinions

A highpoint of India’s G20 was the “Voice of Global South Summit (VOGSS)” held in virtual format. The first online VOGSS held in January 2023 with over 100 Global South nations participation helped India to get their views, some of which were incorporated in the Delhi Declaration released at the G20 summit in September 2023. This incentivized India to get the African Union included as the 21st member of G20. Encouraged by this, India held two more online VOGSS in November 2023 and August 2024. The purpose of these, as explained by India’s external affairs minister S. Jaishankar was that India wanted to help Global South nations with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by becoming a bridge between Global North and Global South nations, implying a leadership role for India in global geopolitics. 

Such India’s thinking is problematic. Hamstrung by its colonial zero-sum mindset, India has failed to realise that the Global North and Global South models are as different as chalk and cheese. Global South is a voluntary participation of EMDCs with no designated leader: one reason why the aspirational EMDCs have queued up to join BRICS. Thus, at the 16th BRICS summit held under Russian presidency, thirteen “partner countries” were added

Moreover, the EMDCs are attracted to China’s BRI and alignment of its 15 national SDGs with the UN 2030 SDGs agenda which it has offered to support through its Global Development Initiative (GDI). Given the popularity of China’s BRI, its unmatched international infrastructural building record; and Xi’s three initiatives, namely GDI, Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) pivoted on UN based law, it would not be incorrect to say that without China, the Global South conglomerate might not have been possible. 

BRI’s popularity is evident in South Asia where China’s strategic footprints have eclipsed India’s traditional hegemonic hold over its smaller neighbours. Today, except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian nations, namely, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are onboard BRI and Afghanistan is negotiating economic engagement with China. 

How little India can offer the EMDCs is clear from its inability to exploit the China-plus-one opportunity which has come from the US and EU’s de-globalisation and de-risking drive to move global supply chains away from China. Indian government’s top think tank NITI Aayog has reported that Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia have been bigger beneficiaries of China-plus-one than India for various political, bureaucratic and structural reasons. 

Moreover, with the technology shift shaping global geopolitics, EMDCs are keen to move beyond physical connectivity to cyberspace hardware and software connectivity, in which China, a world leader, is competing with the US to set global standards. With most Global South nations willing to get Chinese emerging technologies, China, rather than the US, stands better chances of having its tech standards accepted by majority of the world. 

By 2030, let alone becoming the leader of Global South nations, India on US tech standards might find itself strategically isolated in its own neighbourhood where BRI nations would be on Chinese e-commerce technology for digital trade. 

The Indian dream of becoming a developed nation can only be realised in a collective way as part of the Global South working with Russia and China. Because this global governance model promises sustainable development.

Wider Eurasia
BRICS After Expansion
Dmitry Suslov
The 2024 expansion is the most important milestone, after which BRICS found itself at a fork in the road. It will either preserve and strengthen the quality of cooperation amid the new composition and turn into a genuine institute of global governance and dive into the formation of a more just world order, or it will become a loose and non-decision-making discussion club, participation in which is prestigious, but does not oblige its members to make any obligations or compromises, which are necessary for genuine multilateralism, Dmitry Suslov writes.
Opinions
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.