It is on one level a clear signal about the Ukrainian leadership’s current weakness. Not only has it been trapped by this trial, it will suffer severe reputational damage as a result. This reflects the weakness of Ukraine’s leadership. It remains in a position which will see them struggle to build a consensus within their elites regarding both domestic and foreign policy.
The first thing it is important to note about the situation regarding Yulia Tymoshenko is that it will have a very serious negative impact on the Ukrainian leadership’s reputation – not only in Europe, but also in Russia. To an extent, this trial and situation is for Yanukovych what Khodorkovsky is for the Russian authorities, in terms of perception abroad. The European Union issued a statement to the effect that this decision was unacceptable. There was also a very strong reaction from the Russian side to this ruling. So now we have to try to think beyond the immediate situation and try to analyze what it means.
It is on one level a clear signal about the Ukrainian leadership’s current weakness. Not only has it been trapped by this trial, it will suffer severe reputational damage as a result. This reflects the weakness of Ukraine’s leadership. It remains in a position which will see them struggle to build a consensus within their elites regarding both domestic and foreign policy.
The second issue is: what does this mean for Ukraine’s orientation, its relations with Russia and the EU? I have just established a Eurasian trade task force, to try to chart the future of the Customs Union. A large part of the discussions were focused on the situation in Ukraine. There are very grave concerns not only within the EU but also in Russia and Turkey, about the future trajectory of Ukraine. This affair represents a critical moment for the country.
The third question is: to what extent can Ukraine’s partners improve the situation? By partners clearly both the EU and Russia are meant. From this point of view, also it is worth noting the highly complex nature of Ukraine-Russia relations regarding energy links and the agreements signed by Prime Ministers Putin and Tymoshenko.
Outsiders struggle to comprehend the actual content of these agreements. Ukraine could prove to be a major challenge for both the EU and Russia in coming months. It is in a very difficult position right now, economically, but chiefly politically. This affair reflects these very deep difficulties facing the Ukrainian establishment.
It can be hoped that Ukraine’s partners will refrain from using the situation to their advantage, and instead that they will attempt to encourage or support the country as it takes these vital decisions, while hopefully observing its international commitments.
