Changes in the United States could provide significant support to Viktor Orbán, who was the first in Europe to openly back Donald Trump in his struggle against the European mainstream, writes Gábor Stier. The Hungarian prime minister has a keen sense of global trends, and the fruits of this may become evident during a potential Trump presidency. However, this hinges on Orbán maintaining his power in the 2026 elections, while last year his position weakened for the first time in a long while.
Despite strong opposition, Viktor Orbán was the first in Europe to side with Trump long before the elections. At the time, this overt support was still risky, but the Hungarian prime minister trusted his political instincts. He had good reason to believe that pressure on him would not increase further, even if Kamala Harris won, and that Hungarian-American relations could not deteriorate further. On the other hand, with Trump’s return, US interference in Hungary’s domestic politics – ultimately aimed at toppling Orbán’s government – could cease. More importantly, the success of a Republican politician aligned with Orbán in the civilizational struggle could expand the manoeuvring room for European patriots, and thus for the Hungarian government. Not to mention that Trump, who promises to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and end the war, would also strengthen Orbán’s position in this endeavour and make Hungary’s unorthodox foreign policy – which often clashes with the liberal, globalist mainstream – more acceptable.
However, Hungary’s foreign policy is only unorthodox from the perspective of the declining Western mainstream. It is better understood as pragmatic, rooted in sovereignty and the effective pursuit of national interests, aligning with the realist school of thought. As Orbán has put it, foreign policy based on national interests combines the best elements of idealism and realism. The term “national” refers to the idealistic element, as a nation is primarily an idea, while “interest” embodies realism, representing what is necessary, useful, and practical.
Hungary is not a great power, but its current government continues to assert an independent foreign policy and expects others to respect this ambition. According to Orbán, a country of Hungary’s size and aspirations has no choice but to rely on its resilience, strong stance, and willingness to confront challenges rather than retreat. The Hungarian prime minister believes that a country with such weight and capabilities can only succeed in foreign policy by taking radical – or rather, authentic – positions. This approach allows for concessions when necessary. For example, Hungary does not discuss mechanisms for migrant distribution and integration but questions whether migration is beneficial at all. Budapest aims not to be the best pupil of any external power but to be its own master.
Perhaps Hungary’s most significant political achievement on the global stage is its ability to conduct an independent foreign policy. It resists both soft and hard pressure aimed at forcing compliance with the well-behaved norms of the Western mainstream. Instead of aligning more closely with the European mainstream as part of the Western bloc, Hungary seeks ties with the East and the South. The foundation of its foreign policy logic is interconnectedness, ensuring Hungary is not confined to either the Western or Eastern parts of the global economy but is present in both. This policy can be described as a form of national realism, flexibly adapting to the current geopolitical situation while consistently representing national interests. It combines the pragmatic approach of traditional realism with a commitment to idealistic values.
This Hungarian path, rooted in national realism, begins with reality – the changing world order and Hungary’s shifting position within it. The so-called Global South is becoming increasingly competitive, US politics are undergoing radical transformation, and the European Union’s influence is waning. In this dynamic environment, Hungary must strengthen bilateral relations with the United States while maintaining ties with the West as a whole. The goal is to develop an autonomous, integrative role within the EU while pursuing maximum cooperation with the Global South, Turkic states, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative within legal and economic frameworks.
The roots of this policy trace back about a decade and a half, gaining new relevance as the crisis in the Western world deepens. The future lies beyond the West – in the Arab region, China, or Central Asia. However, it is not new for Hungary to recognize that it cannot remain solely within the increasingly creaky framework of the EU, which has lost momentum, is weakening, and lacks a clear direction for transformation. Hungary refuses to weaken its ties with the non-Western world, despite the logic of bloc confrontation forcing choices.
For now, the most important advantage of Trump’s victory for Orbán is the cessation of US pressure. The ambassador who worked to oust him is gone, so Hungary’s ruling party, aside from its own weaknesses and visible fatigue, now only has to contend with Brussels. However, relying on European funds is still not an option, and taking on more debt from China would be unseemly. Therefore, Trump could help Hungary’s economy, which is struggling with a currency shortage and narrowing room for manoeuvre in Europe, by providing a significant loan before the 2026 elections. Additionally, negotiations are underway for major investments. It is also worth noting that ending the war in Ukraine would greatly benefit Orbán, who has supported this from the beginning, as well as Hungary’s economy. The new US administration could boost Orbán’s somewhat shaky domestic prestige by removing Antal Rogán, one of the most important government ministers, from the US travel ban list over corruption allegations. For now, a likely gesture would be the reinstatement of the double taxation agreement, which the US cancelled in 2022 for political reasons. A visit to Washington would also improve Orbán’s reputation, especially since the Hungarian prime minister surprisingly did not attend Trump’s inauguration. This was announced in advance, and the recent visit of Hungary’s foreign minister to the US was likely aimed at laying the groundwork for such a trip.
The effects of Trump’s full-scale offensive have noticeably boosted Orbán’s confidence, and he is now acting more assertively than before in opposing the mainstream. As he recently stated, the struggle continues, but with an important difference: the goal is no longer survival but victory. This was evident during the latest EU summit. It is no coincidence that Emmanuel Macron – not for the first time – specifically tried to persuade Orbán by inviting the Hungarian prime minister to Paris ahead of the meeting. However, unlike previous occasions, Orbán not only threatened a veto but also used it on the issue of support for Ukraine. Thus, the European liberal mainstream is forced to circumvent Orbán on issues most important to it, but this has irrevocably exposed divisions within the EU.
Orbán’s political weight and the current significant animosity toward him from the European elite could grow further if Trump assigns the Hungarian prime minister a role in his ideological struggle against progressive globalists. This is to be expected, at least because America wants to keep Europe on a short leash and will cultivate new clientele and dependencies to intimidate the current European elite. In exchange for certain concessions and privileges, Trump’s team would use Orbán, Giorgia Meloni, Herbert Kickl, Marine Le Pen, Alice Weidel, and Robert Fico while forcing them to compete for loyalty. The same applies to sovereigntist factions in the European Parliament.
The effort to create alternatives offers a chance for a real deal with the dominant elites of major countries, who will face constant pressure from sovereigntists.
