Valdai Club

Modern relations between Russia and Uzbekistan are not limited to a number of issues which arise in bilateral cooperation, even when its successful.They are a factor that largely determines the real state of affairs throughout Central Eurasia. The stability of the entire regional system of joint development and security depends on how they develop in the future, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. The article is based on the results of the Russian-Uzbek conference of the Valdai Club and the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

In terms of its intensity and richness, interaction between Moscow and Tashkent is truly a very special phenomenon - since the beginning of economic reforms which brought about a policy of openness in Uzbekistan, cooperation between the two countries has been growing and can now be characterised as an exceptionally rich strategic partnership. The main reason is that Russia and Uzbekistan possess the greatest demographic and industrial potential in the CIS. These factors, taken together, make their relations the driving force of development in Eurasia.

At the same time, Russia and Uzbekistan, as repeatedly emphasised by the participants of the bilateral conference of the Valdai Club and the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Moscow, May 27, 2025), are building ties with the maximum number of powers that are inclined to constructive interaction. Thus, in their policies, they fully correspond to reality, the essence of which is the impossibility of making the Eurasian space closed. As the head of the Valdai Club Andrey Bystritsky noted at the opening of the conference, “Russia and Uzbekistan have coinciding development goals,” which makes them natural partners. In turn, the head of the Uzbek delegation, Director of ISMO Eldor Aripov, pointed out that “Russia is Uzbekistan’s largest economic partner. These are not only traditional industries, but also technologies and innovations.” In other words, in pursuing their sovereign approaches, Russia and Uzbekistan not only successfully trade and invest, but also strengthen Eurasia as a whole.

The parties also have similar security goals, the most important of which for Central Eurasia is the Afghan problem, a legacy of the Cold War and the subsequent occupation of this country by the United States and its satellites. The situation in Afghanistan is currently relatively stable. However, for Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries and, last but not least, Russia, it is important that in the future this country must not become a base for hostile and extremist forces supported by powers for which security in Eurasia is only a matter of confrontation with Russia and China. Russia and Uzbekistan adhere to similar approaches and believe that the path to solving the problem in the future lies in Afghanistan becoming more open, because the isolation of this country will not bring anything good to the region. It is no coincidence that Western countries, on the contrary, are trying to isolate the Afghan authorities on the world stage, although they are conducting an unofficial dialogue with them. They expect to use their influence in the future to destabilize Central Asia, or, at least, to create opportunities for themselves on Afghan soil to influence the state of affairs in the region. 

 

Russia and Uzbekistan are equally interested in developing new transport and logistics systems in Central Eurasia. The reason is that both economies are export-oriented and, in the context of the vulnerability of sea trade routes, as well as the disruption of previous trade routes, they seek to develop new areas of foreign trade. This is especially important for Uzbekistan, which, on the one hand, is strengthening its industrial potential, and, on the other hand, due to its geopolitical position, depends on its neighbours.

This seems especially important given that such large countries cannot rely solely on the capabilities of the global market in modern conditions. Moreover, responsibility for solving specific problems still remains with national governments. Therefore, now Russia and Uzbekistan are simultaneously interacting themselves and within the framework of their cooperation within four very important contexts. First, we are talking about changing global conditions. Russia and Uzbekistan built strategies which were based on an international framework which no longer exists. The Eurasian Economic Union was created based on the opportunities and rules of globalisation, which has already become a thing of the past. Now both powers must adapt their economic development strategies taking into account the changed realities of the global economy: increasing competition, bloc thinking in the West, numerous trade and tariff wars, and the weakening of international institutions and law.

Second, the broad regional context of Russian-Uzbek cooperation is changing. Eurasia is not a black box; it is part of the world and is subject to its positive and negative impacts. Everything that happens in the world is reflected in the practical interaction between Russia and Uzbekistan, and is taken into account in the framework of their political dialogue at all levels.

At the same time, it is here that such major powers as Russia, China and India interact. External forces - the United States and the European Union - are also trying to influence the state of affairs in Eurasia. Although the influence and capabilities of the latter are waning, Europe can still act as a source of certain investments and as a trading partner. Cooperation between the Central Asian states is also developing in the centre of Eurasia. The countries of the "five" - ​​Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - are forming a framework of common ideas about the main ways to solve their national development problems. There is no reason to think that their cooperation can acquire the character of integration which reflects a conditional "European" model - closed from the rest of the world and striving for the exclusivity of its position. However, they may well create a development space in the centre of Eurasia, which will be convenient for both Russia and their other great neighbour, China, to interact with. Russia welcomes this interaction, which is confirmed by the creation of the "5 + 1" format. However, it is important to highlight specific future-oriented areas of cooperation.

Third, we must not forget about a more local context. In developing cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan, we must take into account that states are living organisms in which transformations occur. Russia and Uzbekistan are following their own independent path and responding to challenges that are both strategic and current in nature. The most important of these are the transformation of societies, the change of political generations, the evolution of values and the role of religion. There are also common long-term challenges that cannot be underestimated (the water problem, climate issues, demographic issues). These can be addressed through the joint development of Russia and Uzbekistan, via new approaches, as long as we set aside the desire to achieve simple and immediate results. Of great importance is the aforementioned issue of values. The value systems of societies evolve. Now Russia and Uzbekistan have learned to perceive each other's value systems as part of the historical development of our societies. However, in the future, we will need to work hard to ensure that the evolution of value systems does not become an obstacle to cooperation or a source of mistrust between our respective societies. We must not forget that opponents of stability in Eurasia will always seek to worsen the split between its states. Russia and Uzbekistan have sufficient potential and stable governments, allowing them to prevent such a split. 

Another important challenge and opportunity is the high-tech sector and, in particular, the spread of artificial intelligence (AI). When we talk about AI development, we see that Russia has certain achievements in this area and can provide alternative solutions to Chinese and American ones. Therefore, we must now vigorously develop an expert dialogue between Russia and Uzbekistan in the field of AI, especially the political aspects of this phenomenon of modern life. Finally, it is important to discuss the maintenance of social stability, which is as important as security and technological development issues. By simultaneously addressing the current and strategic aspects of their relations, Russia and Uzbekistan will be able, it seems, not only to maintain the achieved level of relations, but also to improve them to the point where they are considered an anchor of stability for all Greater Eurasia.