The unfavourable economic environment of the European Union for its associated members, which includes Moldova, and the openly consumerist attitude of Brussels towards EU candidates in general, cannot be ignored forever. At the same time, Russia has consistently and unwaveringly demonstrated its readiness to build friendly and partnership-oriented relations with the republic, Natalya Kharitonova writes..
The results of domestic political transformations in Moldova over three and a half decades of independent existence are especially clearly visible in the context of electoral campaigns. They show that it is not so easy to put this post-Soviet state on European rails. Yes, indeed, the percentage of supporters of Moldova’s European integration is consistently growing due to the efforts of Western protégés in power in the republic. However, the objective circumstances and geopolitical realities that create the fabric of political processes in the Northern Black Sea region show that the policy of European integration alone is not enough to reformat an entire nation within a short historical period. A number of factors of an objective nature, be they close ties with Russia or a rejection of European values, continue to work against Moldova’s European integration, overcoming the understandable desire of entire strata of Moldovan society to live better.
Reflecting on the very indicative results of the electoral campaign that took place in the autumn of 2024, we can say that the failure of the European ideal in Moldova has been caused by the population’s fatigue from the unqualified and clumsy domestic and foreign policy of the pro-European authorities, unfulfilled expectations and, as a result, the frustration of the masses. However, these assessments are clearly not enough. I believe that there is another problem: every electoral campaign of the last twenty years has been held within the framework of the geopolitical and ideological division of society and a very rigid political design of this division. Sooner or later, this approach will begin to yield increasingly serious failures.
Thus, referring to the results of the presidential elections in Moldova, the first round of which took place on October 20, and the second – on November 3, we can say, and this has become a common assessment among experts, that Sandu is the president of the diaspora. As in the 2020 presidential elections, every fourth vote cast for her was the vote of a Moldovan living abroad, mainly in Western countries. Domestically, her opponent, Alexandru Stoianoglo, who made his debut as a politician in these elections, won. The “differentiated” voting results made it possible to define the results of the elections, where large-scale manipulations and falsifications were used by the authorities, as a “stolen victory”. We can see the same picture with the results of the republican constitutional referendum, held on the same day as the presidential elections: October 20. Domestically, the population voted against introducing provisions into the Constitution that would fix the immutability of Moldova’s plans to join the European Union, but the referendum was ultimately recognised as valid.
The developments in Ukraine have been an important factor adjusting the state of the social base of the pro-European movement in Moldova has been. Nationally oriented politicians are frightening the population with a war that will begin in the event of a victory of the pro-Western forces, which will undoubtedly eliminate Moldova’s neutrality and begin moving it towards NATO. The pro-Western political leadership of Moldova, which has openly supported Kiev since the first day of Russia’s special military operation, also frightens the population with war, declaring that it will be inevitable if the opposition comes to power, which is declared to be the “hand of Moscow” and the conductor of its “aggressive policy towards the civilised West”. In turn, the population, which remembers the armed conflict of 1992, is afraid of war; it does not want to fight and, due to its national mentality, will happily join the side that turns out to be more successful...
An even more significant factor winnowing the electoral base of adherents of the pro-European agenda in Moldova is the decline in the standard of living of the voters who have been blackmailed with a potential war. For example, the state debt of the republic has grown 2.5 times over the past four years of rule by pro-Western authorities. The voter sees that none of the election promises of President Maia Sandu have been fulfilled; all that has been done are the so-called successes on the path to European integration of Moldova, which, through the efforts of the presidential team, are clearly associated with Sandu: a number of documents have been signed, allegedly bringing Moldova closer to coveted EU membership, and negotiations on membership have been launched. But against the background of these ephemeral “successes”, the voter directly and physically feels the sting of rising utility bills (due to the rise of gas prices) and fuel prices, as well as the inability to visit relatives in Russia, go there to work via direct flights, and to transfer money earned in Russia to relatives in Moldova. Farmers in Moldova have been on strike for several years against the reduction of duties on Ukrainian agricultural products, which is killing the industry in Moldova. Railway workers have not received their salaries for months. Inflation and corruption are growing and the exodus of the population continues. This is far from a complete list of those changes for the worse that voters directly associate with the pro-European and pro-Euro-Atlantic political leadership of Moldova.
When discussing the prospects of a European agenda for Moldova, it makes sense to pay attention to the controversial political processes taking place in neighbouring Romania and their similarities with what’s happening in Moldova. There, in the first round of the presidential elections on November 24, an independent candidate, the right-wing Eurosceptic Calin Georgescu unexpectedly won, beating all systemic and non-systemic candidates, including the favourite of the race, the leader of the ruling Social Democratic Party, Marcel Ciolacu. The election results caused obvious bewilderment in Brussels. In the parliamentary elections in Romania, held on December 1, the PSD “took revenge” for the failure in the presidential elections, winning the majority of votes (23%, which, however, is extremely small and, in addition, makes it difficult to form a coalition). It is important that in the parliamentary elections, the Romanian right – Eurosceptics and nationalists – demonstrated a threefold increase in support, winning more than a third of the votes together. Against the background of low support for the PSD, this meant that Georgescu could well have won in the second round, if the Constitutional Court of Romania had not annulled the results of the first round on December 7 (even though a recount confirmed the results of the first round). Parallels with Moldova are obvious. As for the results of the parliamentary elections in Romania – this is a very indicative result for its neighbour. There, the ruling party “Action and Solidarity”, which, like the Romanian PSD, is supported by the West, can hardly count on greater support. However, this is unacceptable for Sandu’s team, which in this case would not be able to control parliament. Therefore, the authorities of Moldova, where the election campaign has already de facto started (although the dates of the parliamentary elections have not yet been determined), are frantically looking for options that will allow the ruling party to maintain its position.
Thus, the results of the elections in Romania, demonstrating the socio-political mood at the moment – fatigue from the rule of the Eurodemocrats controlled by Brussels, Russophobic policies and support for Ukraine through the EU and NATO – are indicative to the pro-Western Sandu regime and the opposition in Moldova. The opposition is monitoring trends in the political field of Romania and will try to use not only the fact of low support for Euro-Atlanticism and the growth of support for a nationally-oriented policy in the neighbouring state in campaigning on the eve of the elections, but also to predict possible restrictive measures from the authorities. The latter may strengthen the unifying agenda of the opponents of the authorities and increase their chances of success in the parliamentary elections.
Thus, the question of the prospects of a European agenda for Moldova, which is preparing for elections again, is very acute. For a parliamentary republic, which Moldova still remains, the presidential elections were essentially just preparation for the main battle – the parliamentary elections. We can say with confidence that the pro-European authorities of Moldova will continue to intimidate and blackmail the electorate with war, sanctions, the abolition of the visa-free regime and the reduction of European funding if the population does not vote for the presidential party “Action and Solidarity”. The opposition, in turn, will appeal to the results of Sandu’s previous presidential term and the rule of her party – high tariffs, spoiled relations with Russia, support for Ukraine that is disastrous for the country, falsified results of the presidential elections, the violation of democratic principles, pressure on the opposition, the media and the Moldovan Orthodox Church, etc. The question of how the new US administration sees the desired political landscape in Moldova remains open... And this is one of the key factors determining Moldovan political realities.
We should hope that the growth of Euroscepticism in Europe itself and on its eastern outskirts will play a role in the choice of the Moldovan people, which, through the efforts of the authorities, has become an artificial geopolitical choice. The unfavourable economic environment of the European Union for its associated members, which includes Moldova, and the openly consumerist attitude of Brussels towards EU candidates in general, cannot be ignored forever. At the same time, Russia has consistently and unwaveringly demonstrated its readiness to build friendly and partnership-oriented relations with the republic.
