The recent clash between India and Pakistan was immediately dubbed the “drone war” by the press: for the first time, both sides were actively using UAVs in combat. Leyla Turayanova writes about the reasons for the tensions and explains how Russia unwittingly benefited from the latest Indo-Pakistani escalation.
After the failure of attempts to normalise Indo-Pakistani relations at the beginning of Narendra Modi’s first term as prime minister, the situation during periods of heightened tension has developed according to a predictable scenario: a large-scale terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir, followed by retaliatory strikes against Pakistan, followed by Islamabad responding with de-escalation. In 2016, India carried out “surgical strikes” against terrorists in the Pakistani part of Kashmir, and in 2019, it launched an airstrike on the training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group in Balakot in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
During the latest crisis, provoked by the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, events generally followed this pattern. Since India and Pakistan were not interested in escalation, the military forces of the two countries managed to agree on a ceasefire fairly quickly. At the same time, both sides managed to “save face” and declare victory over the enemy.
However, there were also significant differences. In terms of the weapons used, the number of targets attacked, and the geographical scope, India’s retaliatory strike was much larger than in 2016 and 2019. On May 7, 2025, as part of Operation Sindoor, India carried out 24 strikes on nine terrorist infrastructure targets, five of which were in the Pakistani part of Kashmir and four in the Pakistani province of Punjab. According to Indian media reports, the strikes were carried out by Rafale fighter jets using Scalp (Storm Shadow) air-launched cruise missiles and Hammer guided bombs, as well as kamikaze drones (loitering munitions). Pakistan’s response was proportionate, which led to further escalation. On the fourth day, after an exchange of missile and drone strikes, as well as artillery shelling on the line of control in Kashmir, the fighting was halted.
For the first time, the escalation was accompanied by a broad campaign by New Delhi to mobilise public opinion abroad in support of its actions. Central to this campaign was the decision to send seven delegations, comprising MPs and retired diplomats, to 32 countries in Europe, Asia, America, the Middle East, and Africa, including Russia and the US, as well as to EU headquarters in Brussels, to disseminate information about Operation Sindoor and convey India’s position to the international community. Each delegation included representatives of both the ruling National Democratic Alliance and opposition parties, in a move to emphasise the inter-party consensus in India on a “zero tolerance policy towards terrorism.” Following New Delhi’s announcement, Islamabad also announced that it would send two high-level delegations to Washington, New York, London, Brussels, and Moscow to “expose Indian propaganda.”
The intensity of the information war has also reached unprecedented levels, with social media flooded with fake news exaggerating the successes of one side’s army and the losses of their enemy. So far, there is no evidence that this has affected the development of the conflict. Nevertheless, the question arises as to whether such manipulations could influence decisions made in New Delhi and Islamabad in the future, given that public opinion in both countries encourages their leaders to take decisive action during each escalation.
The “Lakshmana Line” for Pakistan
On May 12, after the end of hostilities, Modi outlined the main elements of New Delhi’s future strategy toward Islamabad in an address to the nation. He later called it the “Lakshman Rekha” – the “Lakshmana line” – against terrorism (in the Indian epic Ramayana, a magical line was drawn by Lakshmana to protect Rama’s wife Sita; in Indian political discourse, it means a symbolic red line that cannot be crossed).
First, Modi promised an inevitable response to a potential terrorist attack against India. “We will give a befitting response on our terms only. We will take strict action at every place from where the roots of terrorism emerge,” the prime minister said, thus asserting New Delhi’s right to strike terrorist facilities, including deep inside Pakistani territory.
Second, Modi indicated that New Delhi would not tolerate “nuclear blackmail” from Islamabad. In other words, Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons is not considered an obstacle to conventional strikes.
Third, the prime minister emphasised that New Delhi will not distinguish between a government that sponsors terrorism and the organisers of terrorist attacks. India’s approach to cross-border terrorism involves imposing costs on Pakistan; given that New Delhi’s military response to terrorist attacks has been escalating, it is possible that in the future the line between strikes on terrorist facilities and Pakistani military targets will be blurred.
Fourth, Modi stated that negotiations with Pakistan could only proceed on issues of terrorism and “Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.” “Terror and talks cannot go together. Terror and trade cannot go together. Water and blood cannot flow together,” he said.
Finally, the prime minister justified the use of force in terms of the country’s aspirations to become a global power. “Every Indian should be able to live in peace, and can fulfil the dream of Viksit Bharat (Developed India). For this, it is very necessary for India to be powerful. And it is also necessary to use this power when required. And in the last few days, India has done just that,” he said.
In essence, this doctrine does not bring anything fundamentally new to Indian politics, representing a development and consolidation of the approaches to Pakistan that have already been established under the Modi government. For Indo-Pakistani relations, with all bilateral ties frozen and neither side showing any interest in establishing a dialogue, this portends further deterioration. The question also remains open as to whether the concept of controlled escalation, which has worked so far, could fail in the future.
In the long term, a new factor that could lead to escalation is India’s use of the water issue as leverage against Pakistan. At present, India does not have the technical capabilities to significantly alter the flow of rivers flowing into Pakistan, but with the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, New Delhi now has the opportunity to implement large-scale hydrotechnical projects without regard for Islamabad.
Drone warfare
For the first time, both sides actively used UAVs in combat, which is why the media immediately dubbed the conflict the “drone war.” Previously, India and Pakistan mainly used military drones for surveillance and reconnaissance along their borders. In addition, Islamabad uses drones in counterterrorism operations on its territory.
In recent years, the intensity of UAV use on the Indo-Pakistani border has increased. According to Indian security forces, terrorist groups based in Pakistan use drones to smuggle weapons and ammunition across the border with India. According to the Indian Border Security Force (BSF), more than 250 drones were intercepted on the border with Pakistan between January and October 2024. In June 2021, an Indian military facility, an airbase in Jammu, was attacked by drones for the first time.
In the field of UAVs, Pakistan relies on partnerships with China and Turkey, while India cooperates closely with Israel. Pakistan’s fleet of attack drones includes Turkish TAI Anka, AsisguardSongar, Bayraktar TB2, and Bayraktar Akinci, Chinese Wing Loong and CH-4, as well as its own Burraq (a localised version of the Chinese CH-3A) and Shahpar. In addition, the country has Turkish Baykar YIHA-III kamikaze drones and its own GM 500 Turah drones.
India’s arsenal of combat drones includes Israeli Heron Mark-2 reconnaissance and strike UAVs, Israeli Harpy, Harop, and SkyStriker kamikaze drones (the latter are manufactured locally in India), Polish Warmate drones, and its own Nagastra-1, JM-1, and ALS-250 drones. In October 2024, the republic signed a $4 billion contract with the US for the supply of 31 MQ-9B Predator reconnaissance and strike drones.
New Delhi is paying great attention to the development of its own military and civilian UAV industry in partnership with private players. Measures to support the unmanned industry include the liberalisation of the regulatory framework for the use of UAVs, programmes to stimulate the production of drones and components for them, and restrictions on the import of unmanned aerial vehicles. A number of Indian startups have recently been awarded contracts to produce drones for the armed forces.
The experience of combat use of drones will encourage India and Pakistan to strengthen their capabilities in the field of unmanned aviation, as well as means of countering UAVs, including electronic warfare and air defence. The advantages of using drones—relatively low cost, accuracy in hitting targets, ability to reduce personnel losses, and partial compensation for asymmetry in weapons—will serve to increase their role in future conflicts in South Asia.
The power of Russian weapons
Russia has unwittingly benefited from the escalation between India and Pakistan: the conflict has provided excellent publicity for the Russian military-industrial complex and laid the groundwork for strengthening Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation, including in the field of air defence systems. India used S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile systems, and was the first foreign buyer to use the systems in combat. Modi personally noted the role of the air defence systems, emphasising that air defences, reinforced by the S-400, repelled Pakistan’s attacks on Indian defence infrastructure.
A contract for the delivery of five regimental sets of S-400 Triumf systems worth $5.4 billion was signed in 2018. Three sets have been deployed on the borders with Pakistan and China, with the remaining two expected to be delivered by 2026. According to Indian media reports, following the successful combat use of the system, New Delhi would like to speed up the delivery of the remaining regiments and purchase additional sets. In addition, Russia has offered India joint production of S-500 anti-aircraft missile systems.
The parties are also negotiating projects to strengthen India’s missile attack warning system. According to Indian media reports, New Delhi intends to sign a contract for the purchase of a Voronezh-type radar station. The deal could be worth $4 billion, with about 60 percent of the system’s components planned to be made in India. India and Russia are also talking about supplying 29B6 Container over-the-horizon radar systems.
A favourable atmosphere is also developing in other areas of Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation. During Operation Sindoor, the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, one of the most successful bilateral cooperation projects, was used in combat for the first time. The reviews were extremely favourable: it is reported that on May 10, about 15 missiles launched from Su-30MKI fighters struck 11 Pakistani air bases. Russia and India are cooperating in the development of the new generation BrahMos NG air-to-surface missile and, according to some reports, are ready to resume discussions on the joint BrahMos-II hypersonic missile project.
