Valdai Club

If Western countries manage to push through the renewal of international sanctions against Iran, it may withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), continue to improve its nuclear programme, and possibly begin creating nuclear weapons as a means of intimidating Israel and its external enemies, Alexander Maryasov writes.

Iran is now facing difficulties in its dealings with other countries, particularly in its own region, where its positions have seriously deteriorated. The situation around the Iranian nuclear programme (INP) remains tense, and this may lead to a sharp aggravation of problems with its neighbours.

 In Syria, the government of Bashar al-Assad, friendly to Tehran, has fallen, and opposition groups with which Iran had recently been at war have come to power.

The land channel of military supplies from Tehran to Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon that passed through Syrian territory has practically ceased to function. These pro-Iranian groups themselves have been greatly weakened and have lost their top military and political leadership as a result of Tel Aviv’s military activity and terrorist strikes. Israel is expanding its zone of influence in Syria and bombs the military depots and logistics centres of pro-Iranian groups there.

Tense relations between Iran and Israel persist, although they have backed away from crossing the line into armed conflict, despite coming close after an exchange of missile and drone strikes. Nevertheless, Tel Aviv continues to threaten to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in the event of the further development of its nuclear programme. Tehran responds with similar belligerent statements.

The acute weakening of the combat capability of pro-Iranian regional proxy groups and their inability to effectively contain Israel's anti-Iranian provocations are forcing Iran to focus on developing and improving its own missile programme and creating more advanced UAVs to repel external threats. 

The continuing uncertainty of US President Donald Trump's plans regarding Iran and the impasse around the INP are causing increasing concern. On the one hand, Trump has declared his reluctance to "overthrow the IRI regime," but on the other hand, he has maintained and even tightened anti-Iranian sanctions.

Speaking about the desire to "make a deal" with Tehran on nuclear issues, Trump is actually demanding that Tehran suspend the development of its nuclear programme and commit to not creating nuclear weapons, but has not provided reciprocal guarantees for the lifting, even partially, of anti-Iranian sanctions.

It is clear that such a position hurts the pride of the Iranians and is unacceptable for Tehran. If immediately after the inauguration of the new US president, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic did not rule out the possibility of Tehran entering into negotiations with the Americans on nuclear issues. However, following the actual ultimatum from Washington and its threats to resolve the nuclear issue using military means, such a possibility was excluded by the Iranian leadership. Tehran has made it clear that negotiations are only possible on a full and mutually acceptable basis.

Under pressure from the United States, the European troika (England, France and Germany), which formally remains in the JCPOA, is taking an increasingly tough stance towards Iran. It insists on expanding the IAEA's monitoring activities in Iran, threatening otherwise to raise the issue of Tehran's failure to comply with its obligations under the JCPOA and the transfer of the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council for the renewal of international sanctions against Iran at a meeting of the Agency's Board of Governors.

It cannot be ruled out that Western countries will try to do this before October 2025, when UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which approved the JCPOA, expires, which would untie Tehran's hands in developing its nuclear programme.

If Western countries succeed in pushing through the renewal of international sanctions against Iran, it could withdraw from the NPT, continue to improve its nuclear programme, and possibly begin work on creating nuclear weapons as a means of intimidating Israel and its other external enemies.