Economic Statecraft – 2025
Five Years of COVID-19: How the Pandemic Changed Our Lives

Governments must view healthcare as a national security issue and strengthen economic security systems, moving toward universal health coverage. However, in the current geopolitical climate, investments in healthcare are not a priority, writes Batyr Berdyklychev, Head of the WHO Representative Office in Russia.

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), and on March 11, 2020, it characterized the outbreak as a pandemic. The pandemic impacted numerous aspects of society, including the economy, tourism, education, healthcare, and science.

The lessons learned from the pandemic are crucial, as they will significantly shape our future behaviour.

The pandemic exposed the unpreparedness of many countries, including high-income nations, for such an unprecedented situation. Infectious diseases had ceased to be a leading cause of mortality, and healthcare systems in many countries were ill-equipped to handle the sudden surge in demand, both in terms of funding and hospital bed capacity. We remember scenes of overcrowded hospital corridors in many European countries and the alarming death toll, particularly among the elderly.

Today, COVID-19 has become part of our daily lives, transitioning into the category of common infections, though people still die from the virus. To date, countries have reported over 7 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide. However, due to imperfect statistical systems and differences in death reporting, the estimated excess mortality is significantly higher, exceeding 27 million deaths, which likely provides a more accurate reflection of the pandemic’s scale and impact.

One positive outcome was the unprecedented speed of vaccine development. Typically, this process takes up to a decade, but the COVID-19 vaccine was developed in less than a year. However, we are well aware of the issues of shortages and inequities in the distribution of vaccines, diagnostics, treatments, and personal protective equipment (PPE), especially in the early stages of the pandemic. The rise of so-called “vaccine nationalism” led to a situation where wealthy countries stockpiled vaccines, while poorer nations were left without. Limited production of PPE and ventilators sparked market frenzies and highlighted the importance of production and technological sovereignty.

Global Corporations and Economy
Vaccine Race: The Implications for the World Economy
Wang Yiwei, Chen Chao
Countries around the world are placing high hopes on the new COVID-19 vaccines in their joint efforts to fight the COVID-19 epidemic, while continuing to face “deficits” in vaccine production capacity and global distribution issues. As a developing country, China has offered to provide its vaccines as public goods to the rest of the world, particularly to people from less developed countries, emphasising the concept of building a global health community for mankind, write Wang Yiwei & Chen Chao.
Opinions

Overall, the significant inequities in the distribution of protective measures, treatments, and vaccines during the pandemic further exacerbated existing inequalities between countries. The distrust that emerged between the Global South and Western nations persists to this day.

Did we handle the pandemic correctly? Were all the measures taken by countries and recommended by the WHO justified? In retrospect, it is clear that the response was far from perfect. Amid high uncertainty and a lack of scientifically validated data, some recommendations were issued too late. However, subsequent reviews have shown that vaccines prevented millions of deaths, and masks provided protective benefits. The topic of lockdowns remains sensitive. While governments implemented movement restrictions, the WHO emphasized that lockdowns alone could not end the pandemic—they were meant to buy time for preparation and should not be prolonged, as they caused significant harm at both individual (isolation, psychological issues) and societal/economic levels.

Another serious issue was the spread of the so-called “infodemic,” anti-vaccine movements, and conspiracy theories. This undermined public trust in scientifically grounded measures taken by governments, particularly vaccination.

Conflict and Leadership
Shock Resistance Prevention: Lessons From the 2020 Pandemic
Andrey Sushentsov
The worst-case scenario has been avoided with the pandemic gradually reaching a plateau. The economic incentives of governments were sufficient to prevent the collapse of the global economy. If the coronavirus pandemic eventually becomes a lesson for international politics and the global economy, then let this be a lesson about resilience to sudden shocks, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Opinions

What have these lessons taught us, and are we better prepared for a potential pandemic today than we were five years ago?

Scientists agree that the risk of a new pandemic is significant. This is partly due to deforestation, human encroachment into wildlife habitats, and the growing impact of climate change.

The pandemic taught us a harsh lesson: no one is safe until everyone is safe. Health risks do not respect borders.

To address this, equitable access to vaccines and medicines must be ensured, though this remains a challenge. Ultimately, it is a matter of political will.

Governments must view healthcare as a national security issue and strengthen economic security systems, moving toward universal health coverage. However, in the current geopolitical climate, investments in healthcare are not a priority.

Ongoing public engagement is essential to debunk rumours and misinformation. Maintaining public trust and ensuring participation in scientifically grounded, life-saving measures is critical.

Unfortunately, we continue to see a rise in populist narratives unsupported by scientific evidence regarding vaccination and efforts to establish international agreements for pandemic preparedness. The United States’ intention to withdraw from the WHO and its decision to suspend funding for healthcare programs further hinder global health coordination.

Therefore, even as the pandemic has ended, we must remember that the risk of a new pandemic is ever-present. Continuous efforts are needed to ensure that our countries, economies, and healthcare systems are prepared to face new threats.

Economic Statecraft – 2025
The World on Pause and an Altered Trajectory: The Legacy of the COVID-19 Pandemic
On March 11, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “COVID-19 Five Years On. How Has the Pandemic Changed Our Lives?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev underscored that the COVID-19 pandemic catalysed profound political and social transformations, reaffirming the centrality of the nation-state and state institutions as pivotal actors in international relations.
Club events
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.