The dragon and the elephant can move in tandem, provided they commit to mutual respect and equitable partnership, Maj. Gen. RPS Bhadauria writes.
Introduction
India-China relations are characterised by a complex interplay of cooperation and competition. In recent years, ties have been overshadowed by the 2020 Galwan clashes, which resulted in significant casualties on both sides. These clashes impacted bilateral relations, and underscored deep mistrust due to an unresolved border dispute. Despite the tensions, trade between the two nations has grown, illustrating a paradox of conflict coexisting with the potential for cooperation. Both countries realise that the world is possibly not moving towards bi-polarity, but towards multi-polarity and that middle powers and organisations like BRICS, ASEAN and SCO are coming to the fore.
Currently, both nations appear to be undergoing a tentative détente. High-level diplomatic engagements and military talks have sought to stabilise the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC); 21 rounds of Corps Commander Level Meetings and 17 rounds of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) meetings resulted in an agreement on October 21, 2024. This revives India’s access to patrolling and grazing rights in the Depsang and Demchok regions, restoring them to their pre-2020 standoff status. The agreement has spelled optimism for bilateral engagement on the boundary question. Also, the recent Senior Representatives meeting in Beijing in December 2024 has shown incremental progress in managing flashpoints along the border. During this meeting, the two sides agreed to “explore/seek a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question.”
India affirmed that the overall political perspective of the bilateral relationship must be taken into account so that issues on the border do not hold back the normal development of bilateral relations.”. India believes that the peaceful conditions prevailing on the ground will benefit ties as a whole.
While challenges remain, these talks underscore both nations’ recognition that managing their relationship is essential for regional and global stability. India and China have demonstrated an ability to manage their disputes and focus on areas of mutual benefit, indicating that cooperation is not only possible but necessary.
The Border dispute: genesis and current status
The India-China border dispute spans over 4,000 kilometres, from the barren Aksai Chin plateau in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east, which is claimed by China as “South Tibet.” The origins of the dispute lie in colonial-era treaties and differing perceptions of territorial boundaries. The McMahon Line, drawn during the 1914 Anglo-Tibetan Simla Conference, remains a major point of contention, with China rejecting it as a colonial imposition.
The 1962 Sino-Indian war further deepened mistrust. Chinese forces advanced into Indian territory before withdrawing unilaterally, leaving scars on India’s national psyche. Despite these historical challenges, the two nations have shown restraint in recent decades, opting for dialogue over military escalation. Mechanisms like the WMCC and the Corps Commander Level Meetings illustrate a commitment to finding ways to coexist. Resolving this dispute is complicated by the strategic value both sides attach to these territories. However, the sustained peace along most parts of the LAC reflects a shared understanding that collaboration is a better path forward than confrontation.
The role of military in achieving stalemate and confidence-building measures to maintain peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)
The military plays a pivotal role in maintaining the status quo and preventing escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Both India and China have deployed significant forces along the border, with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leveraging its better infrastructure, including airbases and strategic roads, to maintain operational readiness. India has responded with its own modernisation efforts, such as developing border infrastructure and enhancing its military capabilities.
Despite regular incursions and standoffs, both sides have managed to avoid large-scale conflict through confidence-building measures (CBMs). Agreements such as the 1993 “Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the LAC” and the 1996 “Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field” have established protocols to manage tensions. Mechanisms like flag meetings, hotlines, and joint military exercises aim to reduce misunderstandings and build trust. Both nations understand that a cooperative approach to border management can lay the groundwork for deeper engagement in other areas.
Cooperation in multilateral forums: G20, BRICS and SCO
India and China’s membership in multilateral organisations like G20, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) reflects their overlapping interests and shared vision for a multipolar world. These platforms highlight the potential for collaboration, particularly when their national interests align in practical and actionable ways.
Convergences:
Divergences:
Despite these divergences, the multilateral platforms provide a neutral space for India and China to engage constructively. These forums demonstrate that even amidst competition, pragmatic cooperation on shared goals is achievable. Recent collaborative efforts on public health and pandemic response through BRICS underline their potential to tackle global challenges together.
India’s membership in the QUAD
India’s involvement in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with the United States, Japan, and Australia is often perceived as a counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. However, India has consistently emphasised that the QUAD is not an anti-China grouping but a platform to promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
The QUAD’s focus extends beyond security. Initiatives such as infrastructure development, vaccine distribution, and technology collaboration aim to address regional development gaps. For India, the QUAD complements its Act East Policy and enhances its strategic options without directly antagonising China. This nuanced approach reflects India’s broader policy of strategic autonomy, balancing its ties with the US and its engagement with China. India’s participation in the QUAD underscores its ability to maintain diverse partnerships while exploring avenues for cooperation with China.
Economic engagement: signs of thaw
Despite political and military tensions, economic ties between India and China have remained robust. Bilateral trade reached $125 billion in 2022-23, making China India’s largest trading partner. However, the trade imbalance, with Indian imports from China far exceeding exports, remains a significant concern.
By identifying complementary strengths, such as India’s burgeoning tech services industry and China’s manufacturing expertise, both nations can explore ways to ensure a more balanced trade relationship. The economic relationship illustrates that mutual dependencies can act as a stabilising force. Both nations stand to benefit from strategic economic ties that prioritise shared growth and development. This pragmatism is indicative of their broader capacity to work together.
Conclusion: Overcoming the trust deficit
India and China, as ancient civilisations, have a responsibility to shape the future of Asia along with other major powers such as Russia and contribute to the Global South’s development agenda. The path to cooperation lies in establishing strategic economic ties that go beyond transactional trade relationships and foster mutual growth. Both nations must work towards agreements that ensure balanced trade and address structural imbalances in their economic engagements.
In multilateral platforms like G20, BRICS and SCO, India and China can find common ground to advocate for the priorities of the Global South. By promoting shared development goals, addressing climate change, and fostering sustainable growth, they can redefine their relationship as partners in global governance.
While challenges persist, the potential for cooperation outweighs the risks of continued mistrust. By embracing strategic economic ties and leveraging their roles as leaders of the Global South, India and China can lay the foundation for a more stable and collaborative relationship in the 21st century.
The dragon and the elephant can indeed move in tandem, provided they commit to mutual respect and equitable partnership.