PM May was in a very controversial position, tasked with finalising Brexit despite not personally being for it before the popular vote. PM Boris Johnson will definitely be better-suited in that respect, Kancho Stoychev, President of the Gallup International Association, writes.
Boris Johnson is what the British call ‘a Marmite character’ (people love or hate him) and ultimately he is largely responsible for the mess the UK is in by leading the Out referendum. (Remember also that a few months before the campaign he wasn’t sure which side to campaign for....). Parliament will remain divided and getting a deal through will remain a serious challenge. But Boris Johnson is a friend of Trump and believes he can obtain a good trade deal between the two countries. That will encourage him to be sharp with the EU, most probably leading to a no-deal scenario.
The pound has tanked over the last two years, but the UK economy is doing well and unemployment is low. If the economy starts to slide and unemployment rises, Britain is going to face deep problems. The markets didn’t jump with his victory; they didn’t slide, either. So it’s fair to guess that there is no great optimism that there is a simple end in sight to the chaos parliament has witnessed.
PM May was in a very controversial position, tasked with finalising Brexit despite not personally being for it before the popular vote. PM Boris Johnson will definitely be better-suited in that respect. But Brexit will hurt Britain – with or without an EU trade agreement. Now it still looks like Boris Johnson is the best option to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of 10 Downing Street. He looks also like the best one to consolidate the Conservative party after the serious haemorrhage to Farage’s Brexit party. However, he most probably can’t unite British society, and once Brexit is over, that will become even more evident.
On the foreign policy front, Boris Johnson will strictly follow Trump and in a way will hold him hostage to the outcome of the US elections next autumn. Most probably, he will continue PM May’s hostile policy towards Russia, but not so rigorously.
The normalisation of relations between the West and Russia will be possible only after the internal battle in between the Western elites and especially the US elites softens. It’s unrealistic to expect this to happen in the short term.