The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
Russia and the United States have no geopolitical or ideological contradictions. On the contrary, they have every reason to become the partners on a number of international issues, the authors of the report argue. While the countries should continue to cooperate on Iran and Afghanistan, they also need to move beyond these topics, as well as to avoid bogging down in the nuclear arms issue becoming the main, or virtually the sole priority on the agenda.
The restoration of a lasting peace in the region is increasingly viewed as a near impossible task. In that light, the authors revised current approaches to the problem and proposed to return to some previously abandoned ideas that may now help move the process as well as develop new initiatives that could lead to its resolution.
The report, discussed at the Russian-Chinese section of the Valdai International Discussion Club “Regional Stability Through Harmonious Development: Russia and China in the New World Architecture” on October 25-26, 2010 offers views on the future impact of Russian-Chinese cooperation on global affairs.
The report starts with a brilliant research on a theory of study of the trilateral relations, then the author highlights the major viewpoints on the nature if the trilateral relations dominating the intellectual landscape in the three countries. The report closes off with cautiously positive chapter on the future international order and on the patterns of development of the trilateral relations.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?