The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?
The old methods are no longer effective. If Putin wants to take back the initiative, he needs to be more open and audacious. His headquarters realized this almost too late. But now that he has taken up the challenge, he will not lose the streets to the opposition.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has proposed Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to run for president in next year's election, ending months of speculation over which man would run for the post. Speaking at the annual congress of the ruling United Russia party, Medvedev said he was ready to make way for Putin and do "practical work in the government."
Part of the opposition believes that dialogue is not possible without Putin’s unconditional surrender. These people are not ready for any talks or dialogue. There are others who are also dissatisfied with the status quo and want to express their opinion. For them dialogue in the form of articles, speeches and Q&A sessions began long ago.
Russia’s democratic movement is not too small, but too multifarious. It has too many rather than too few parties, leaders and factions. Its activists are too proud, too full of themselves and too intellectual to unite with each other across the democratic spectrum for a real fight for political power.
The authorities are adapting to the new reality. Putin is a man of his time, just like Mikhail Gorbachev was a man of his time. Gorbachev is often unfairly criticized for not being able to foresee all the consequences of his actions. Putin is facing the same problem. He needs time to adapt to the new situation.
The presidential election campaign has de facto started in Russia. Official agitation will be launched February 4, one month prior to the vote, but the candidates are already there. Vladimir Putin has published two program articles and is attending rallies across the country.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
