The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
Vladimir Putin has announced that the foreign policy priority for his next term as President will be to create a Eurasian Economic Union, building on the structures of the current Customs Union. The institutional structures of this proposed Union have yet to be clarified, so it is premature to assess how feasible this enterprise is.
The international situation in 2011 was extremely turbulent, it was a year of fundamental geopolitical, geoeconomic and popular shifts in the Middle East. Like the rest of the world, Russia tried to adapt itself to the situation, at least to minimize the damage. For Russia it was necessary to react, and fortunately not to participate directly.
The Common Economic Space of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which enables the free movement of goods, services, capital and workforce, was launched on January 1, 2012. This creates a new reality in the post-Soviet space and raises a number of new questions, including the possibility of expanding the new organization.
Does Russia have a choice, then, between European and Eurasian Union? In fact, in the short to medium term, she does not even have that option. The only viable strategic choice is in the Far East-Eurasian direction. The road to Russia’s future can only go through Siberia and Asia.
Since 2009, Russian foreign policy has gradually turned towards a more regional role, although the region where Moscow places its immediate interests is so big (practically all of Eurasia) that the global element is embedded. In any case, the worldwide approach to the region has been replaced by an understanding of limits.
The role of one of the regional elites was absolutely decisive, namely, the Russian Federation. Yeltsin and the Russian Federation were the key factors in the fall of the Soviet Union. For Yeltsin, one of the few ways to get in the Kremlin was to essentially overthrow President Gorbachev
At first glance, the idea of a re-integration of the post-Soviet republics may seem sensible. The economies, societies and populations of the successor republics of the USSR are linked to each other by a multitude of ties. On closer inspection, however, the creation of a new supranational formation spanning much of the territory of the former Tsarist and Soviet empires is hampered by structural and historical constraints.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?