The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
A draft treaty on European security prepared by Russia allows signatory states to provide military assistance to each other.
Statement by Mr. Alexander GRUSHKO, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Britain’s return to active European politics does not bode well for Russia. With the leadership role being taken over by the French-British tandem, Russia's possibilities to continue pursuing its Euro-Atlantic strategy are narrowed, as London is working to reinforce the military and political capabilities of NATO.
The discord surrounding Syria and the upcoming presidential elections in Russia pushed news from the 48th Munich Security Conference into the background. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented in his Munich speech a program for Russian diplomacy for the near term. One priority is signing a "peace pact" for Europe.
Russia is ready to start talks on tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. It will hardly agree to reduce them because of NATO’s overwhelming conventional arms superiority but it is ready to discuss Article VII of the NPT Treaty, which spells out the rule for nuclear weapons deployment on the territory of non-nuclear countries.
Russia might want to re-create in a new form its own periphery that would be based on common security and energy cooperation with its immediate neighbors. It will be a complex task, however, as Russia has lost during the last twenty years a significant portion of its industrial base and thus is not as attractive partner as China or India.
Over the past twenty years, both Russia and the United States have experienced several cycles of convergence and divergence in their bilateral relations. It seems that Moscow and Washington are doomed to repeat these cycles time and again.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?