The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
Given the crisis and the plummeting demand, Gazprom agreed to index 15% of the supplied amounts to spot prices, which at the time were significantly below the prices pegged to petrochemicals. It also introduced additional conditions in connection to the unique situation on the global gas market.
Nabucco and South Stream are very different in both concept and structure, and this is important for understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each project. Nabucco is a mercantile pipeline. It is being developed and financed by gas companies with backing from the European Union.
Collective research "Russian Energy Security and Foreign Policy" , edited by Adrian Dellecker and the Valdai Club member Thomas Gomart was simultaneously published in the USA and Canada. This book provides an original and thoroughly academic analysis of the link between Russian energy and foreign policies in Eurasia, as well as offering an interpretation of Russia's coherence on the international stage, seeking to understand Russia and explain its behavior.
In recent years one of the main aims of the EU energy policy was to reduce dependence on Russian energy. However, the start of 2011 has prompted to take a different view on the security of energy supply to Europe, especially given an unprecedented increase in gas demand observed in the European market in 2010.
EU's energy strategy envisages, among other things, relieving the Union's dependence on Russian gas. Everybody admits that this is going to require some huge spending. At the same time, moving away from Russia's gas directly contradicts the intention of many EU states to wind down atomic energy production.
According to one likely scenario for the period up to 2035, European economies will continue to experience moderate growth. Because energy intensity will decrease, overall energy demand will more or less stagnate. But gas demand will grow because gas will come to substitute coal and nuclear energy in electricity production. By 2035, European gas demand is likely to have increased by about 100 bcm.
Any oil price rise as the result of Libyan chaos will benefit Russia’s economy. Russia can afford much more when oil is $110/barrel than when it is at $60/barrel. For Russian officials who might see international relations as a zero-sum, a lengthy American entanglement might seem beneficial.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?
