The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
The most important effect on the Russian economy from the European crisis is the tightening of the credit conditions. Since summer last year it is much more difficult for the Russian corporate banking sector to borrow abroad, compared to say 12-18 months ago. As a result many Russian companies and banks have to repay old debts while not being able to borrow new ones.
Russia’s top leadership is unprepared for negative developments, showing a surprising complacency, with revival of the smug ‘safe haven’ rhetoric which was a feature of the run up to the crisis of autumn 2008.
Russia can produce anything it wants. Global competition allows new players who can offer something better to establish themselves on the market. But Russia does not have the political will and is not making the administrative efforts necessary to achieve an innovation breakthrough.
Russia will have to face certain challenges in the economic sphere in order to solve the problems of economic modernization. In the short term, one of the important things for Russia is what is going on in Europe, because if there is a deep recession in Europe, which is possible, there is no doubt that Russia will suffer as well because of its external trade relations with the European market.
Russia’s economic role will more likely be to create demand for products and services produced in the EU, along with other emerging markets fulfilling their WTO commitments. To do that, Russia needs special agreements with the European Union, which effectively operates as a customs union.
Independent development is very important, but borrowing is more effective. The question is what Russia wants to achieve. If it wants to catch up with someone by a given deadline, independent development will be counterproductive, because we would kill ourselves trying to reinvent the wheel when there is technology that we can use for free.
That Russia finally has been admitted to the World Trade Organization is good for the world, both for the global system as a whole and for the current members. How good WTO membership turns out to be for Russia itself is less clear-cut. Russia doesn't have much to gain in terms of better access to foreign markets, because few of its exports other than commodities are very competitive.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?
