The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
If 2011 witnessed the United States’ “return to the Asia-Pacific,” the focus of U.S. foreign policy in 2012 appears to be to promote its entire Asia-Pacific strategy through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In this context, what people need to understand is why the United States needs the TPP strategy and what impacts the TPP strategy will have for the United States, the Asia-Pacific region, and the rest of the world.
North Korea doesn’t really believe the offers of the international community of security in exchange for denuclearization. The country that they're most worried about is the United States.
It is too soon to speak about North Korea rejoining the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The changing of the ruler in that country is no reason to believe that the situation will evolve. But we certainly must use this window of opportunity to make some progress toward reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Russia has economic and diplomatic interests in Iran's continued alienation from the West. Russian firms benefit from the reluctance of Western companies to invest in Iran due to the numerous unilateral and multilateral sanctions imposed on its government for its nuclear activities. These tensions preserve Russian firms as Iran's major economic partners.
Domestic and foreign policy changes will only become possible in the future when Kim Jong-un gains a firm grip on the reins of power. If the international environment is more tranquil and the economy is more open, North Korea may start to gradually enhance its cooperation with the rest of the world. In this case, it will also be able to step up its domestic development.
Russia is not an ally of Tehran, although not in favor of aggressive pressure. By now Moscow is familiar with Iran’s game. Its current show of resolve will likely be followed by a new series of peace proposals directed mainly at Russia and China. This has happened before, but Russia’s protection of Iran is not unconditional.
The 2012 APEC summit in Vladivostok will be one of the year’s major international events. Russia’s time as APEC chair is an opportunity to demonstrate its leading role in the Asia-Pacific region, especially Northeast Asia.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?
