The Arab Spring has shifted the balance in the Middle East, highlighting new problems and challenges for Russia and other regional and extra-regional powers.
Russia’s Sochi played host to the Valdai Discussion Club Middle East section’s conference “Transformation in the Arab World and Russia’s Interests” on February 17-18, 2012.
The Valdai International Discussion Club held the Moscow-Astana videoconference “Elections in Kazakhstan and the outlook for Eurasian integration” at the RIA Novosti press center.
The theses contained in the report “Russia should not miss its chance: Development scenarios” were prepared by the working group comprising Russian and international experts ahead of the VIII annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, themed “2011-2012 Elections and the Future of Russia. Development Scenarios for the Next 5-8 Years”.
The Valdai Index represents the combined opinion of leading world experts that participated in Valdai Club conferences with respect to Russia’s development in the political, economic, social, cultural and international spheres. Download Russia Development Index 2010-2011 in Russian (PDF)
The report examines how the Russia’s and United States` ties with the countries in post-Soviet Eurasia affect the bilateral relationship. The authors argue that despite the initial successes of the “reset” in Russia-U.S. relations, disputes relating to post-Soviet Eurasia represent “a ‘landmine’ in Russia -U.S. relations that could ‘detonate’ at any time and seriously complicate cooperation on other issues.
Gaddafi’s death has not brought an end to the civil war in Libya. What’s more, the brutality with which he was killed without charge or trial has caused public revulsion both in the Arab Islamic world and beyond.
The West has been mirroring militants’ intransigence in its handling of the Middle Eastern affairs lately. This is exactly the approach that Russia once tried to implement vis-à-vis Chechnya: no dealing with the rogues, no compromises with your opponents, no tolerance for those who do not agree to have it your way.
Whatever one may think about former Libyan leader, his death most likely means not the end, but a beginning of a real crisis in this North African country. Rebels have been consolidated by a common wish to capture and kill the dictator, and this aim kept them together. Now the most important process will be launched – the struggle for revenues and power in new Libya.
Africa is gaining greater importance in the foreign policy of developed nations, who are competing for influence on the continent. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and India all seek to expand political and economic ties with African nations. Their main interest in Africa lies in their growing need for its vast resources. Moreover, Africa remains an enormous and largely undeveloped market for technology and consumer goods.
The BRICS must learn to appreciate their global role, to turn into an active global force – not only responding to issues as they arise but architects of the new world order.
In a practical sense, we need to consider the situation in Libya, where Russia has many interests and where those interests may well be implemented with the interim authorities and with the future Libyan government. Of course, we did not take part in the military operation to support the rebels, but on the other hand, we didn’t veto the UN Security Council resolution, which definitely means we haven’t automatically lost our positions and contracts in Libya.
The Republic of South Sudan was proclaimed on July 9 following the referendum last January in which 98% of South Sudan’s residents voted for independence.
Seen from Moscow, the Middle East lies on its very doorstep. With 20 million Muslims in the Northern Caucasus, Russia feels that its domestic stability is linked to developments in the Arab world, especially to the rise of Islamist parties. After a long absence, Russia is now demanding a seat for itself at the top table of Middle East affairs.
The creation of a contact group for Syria similar to the League of Friends of the Syrian Opposition, whose mission is military intervention in a sovereign state, is entirely inconsistent with international law and the UN Charter
Army-General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff launched an apparently scathing attack on the domestic defense industry. His comments provoked public controversy with the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. However, as the Russian media focused on Makarov’s statements, it appears to have missed an important point. No other general supported the views offered by the Chief of the General Staff; their silence is deafening.
What will shape Medvedev’s legacy? The reset with the US which culminated in the ratification of a new Start treaty and Russian accession to the WTO?